The US commercial remote sensing satellite industry is in danger of losing its edge to global competition, particularly from China.
The US commercial remote sensing satellite industry faces critical challenges as military demand for real-time information increases. Although the US has a solid satellite infrastructure, current funding, estimated at $4 billion over 10 years, is deemed insufficient to maintain competitiveness in the face of the rise of China and other international players. Experts are calling for a significant increase in funding and more effective integration of commercial capabilities into the US military architecture to avoid falling behind technologically.
Insufficient funding for the commercial remote sensing satellite industry
Current funding for the US commercial remote sensing satellite industry raises concerns about the ability of the US to remain competitive on the world stage. According to David Gauthier, former head of commercial operations at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), the $4 billion in funding over 10 years allocated by the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) for commercial electro-optical imagery is woefully inadequate. Gauthier suggests that this budget should be increased tenfold, to $40 billion, to ensure sustainable competitiveness in the face of growing competition from countries such as China.
One of the main reasons for this budget shortfall is the rapid increase in tactical intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) requirements. These requirements include the immediate collection and analysis of data crucial to military operations in the field. Commercial satellites, although advanced, must continue to innovate to meet the growing demand for real-time surveillance. However, lack of funding is holding back innovation, delaying the integration of new technologies such as virtual constellations combining Earth Observation (EO), Infrared (IR), Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and Radio Frequency (RF) systems.
The consequences of this underfunding are already apparent. The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of commercial satellites in providing accessible and shareable intelligence. Yet the industry is struggling to keep pace with ever-changing military requirements. This stagnation could lead to technological backwardness, leaving US forces vulnerable to technologically better-equipped adversaries.
The threat of the rise of Chinese remote sensing satellites
China has made significant progress in the deployment of remote sensing satellites dedicated to military operations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. The number of Chinese surveillance satellites has tripled since 2018, reaching more than 350 satellites. These satellites are strategically designed to support Chinese military operations, providing essential reconnaissance capability to monitor the movements of US forces.
The acceleration of China’s presence in space represents a direct threat to US intelligence superiority. Chinese satellites, equipped with advanced technologies such as Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), provide constant surveillance, day and night, in all weathers, significantly enhancing China’s ability to monitor and potentially counter US forces.
Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stresses that the speed with which China is developing its ISR capabilities should serve as a wake-up call for the United States. It is imperative that the US government push for the integration of commercial remote sensing capabilities into the military ISR architecture. If the US does not act quickly, it risks losing its technological lead, which could have serious consequences for national security.
Bureaucratic challenges and the need to clarify responsibilities
The lack of clarity about the responsibilities of the various US agencies in the field of tactical ISR adds a layer of complexity to the problem. The Space Force, the NRO and the NGA have overlapping roles in this area, creating uncertainty about which direction to take and how funds should be allocated. This bureaucratic confusion hampers the government’s ability to effectively support the commercial remote sensing industry.
According to Todd Harrison, defence strategy and budget analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, this confusion prevents the best use of available resources. He argues that the agency responsible for tactical ISR should receive dedicated funding for the acquisition of commercial space surveillance products. This would send a clear signal to industry about the government’s commitment to supporting this capability.
In the meantime, some initiatives have been taken, such as the Space Force awarding contracts to commercial companies, funded by Congressional budget additions. However, the lack of long-term funding is holding back the industry’s ability to develop and innovate. This situation creates an instability that could slow the growth of the industry and, consequently, compromise the ability of the United States to remain competitive in the field of remote sensing.
Global competition and the challenges of remaining competitive
The United States is no longer alone in dominating the commercial remote sensing market. A 2021 assessment conducted by the NGA, dubbed the ‘Olympics of Commercial Remote Sensing’, revealed that US companies won only three gold medals out of nine categories. Foreign companies, such as the Finnish company Iceye and various Chinese satellite operators, demonstrated significant capabilities, particularly in SAR technologies and revisit rates.
These results show that, although the US industry remains a world leader, stagnant elements in the bureaucracy are holding back its advance. The next report, due in 2024, will provide a new assessment of global remote sensing capabilities, and the results could highlight areas where the US is in danger of losing ground.
To remain competitive, the US government must not only increase funding but also simplify and speed up the bureaucratic processes that are holding back innovation. This includes clarifying the roles of the various agencies and providing coherent funding to enable industry to meet the growing needs of the military sector.
A call to action to maintain US superiority
Commercial remote sensing has become an essential element of modern military strategy, but the United States is in danger of losing its lead in the face of increasing international competition, particularly from China. To avoid such a scenario, it is crucial to significantly increase investment in the industry, streamline bureaucratic processes and clarify the responsibilities of the various agencies involved in tactical ISR.
Without these measures, the US could find itself in a weak position in an area crucial to national security. Time is running out, and it is essential that the US government take decisive action to ensure that the commercial remote sensing industry remains at the forefront of innovation and continues to meet the nation’s strategic needs.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.