Russian analysts publish a scenario for attacks against Japanese defenses in response to Type 12 and MRC Typhoon missiles.
An offensive simulation revealing a strategic hardening
Russian military analysts have published a tactical study envisaging a missile strike campaign against Japan. This scenario, reported by the media outlet Voennaya Khronika, which is considered close to the Moscow government, methodically details the stages of an attack aimed at neutralizing Japan’s defense architecture, which is seen as a direct threat to the Russian Far East.
Although presented as a theoretical simulation, this document shows a change in tone in Russian public doctrine, explicitly including Japan as a potential target in an indirect confrontation with the United States. The precision of the plan, the estimated number of strikes, and the specifically identified targets demonstrate a clear desire for active deterrence.
An announced response to missile systems deployed in Japan
The justification put forward by Russian analysts is based on the deployment on Japanese soil of long-range ground-to-ground missiles, in particular the locally designed upgraded Type 12 systems and the US MRC Typhoon systems, equipped with SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles. The latter have a range of over 2,000 kilometers, which would enable them to strike Russian installations in the Far East, including Vladivostok, the Knevichi air base, and the port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky.
The Japanese government justifies these acquisitions by strengthening its counterstrike capabilities against the North Korean threat, but Moscow sees them as an extension of US projection in Asia. With this in mind, the Japanese sites hosting these systems are now considered priority targets in the event of an escalation.
A strike campaign divided into three distinct phases
The analysis details a three-phase plan designed to successively disrupt Japan’s air defense, naval projection capabilities, and military industrial base.
Phase 1: neutralization of the anti-aircraft network
The first wave would target key air defense nodes, including Patriot PAC-3 batteries stationed in Hakodate, Iruma, and Gifu. According to Russian calculations, these sites would require between 25 and 45 Kh-101 or Iskander cruise missiles per target, or 10 to 12 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to avoid interception.
At the same time, the plan proposes the destruction of J/FPS-3UG (in Tobetsu and Kyogamisaki) and J/FPS-4 (in Tokao) early warning radars. Each of these sites would be targeted by approximately seven Kh-101 missiles, with the aim of depriving Japan of its advanced detection capabilities.
This phase would seek to disrupt the chain of command and coordination of defensive strikes by saturating anti-missile systems.
Phase 2: neutralization of naval projection capabilities
Once radar coverage has been weakened, strikes would target the naval bases at Maizuru and Ominato, which are essential to the maritime deployment of the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force. The analysis estimates that 20 to 25 Kalibr missiles per site would be needed to render them inoperable.
These bases are used in particular for logistical support for the Maya and Atago class destroyers, which are part of the Aegis system. Putting them out of action would significantly reduce the mobility of Japanese forces in the Sea of Japan and the North Pacific.
Phase 3: paralysis of the defense industrial base
The final phase would target Mitsubishi Heavy Industries shipyards in Nagasaki, Kobe, Yokohama, and Shimonoseki. These facilities maintain Japanese and US vessels, including submarines and escort ships based in Japan under the bilateral security agreement.
Destroying these production capabilities would affect logistical support for the US 7th Fleet and weaken the entire US-Japan alliance in the region.
The entire operation would require between 200 and 250 Kh-101 cruise missiles, with the possibility of substituting some of them with Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, which are more expensive but capable of breaching air defenses with a high success rate.
A strategy of attrition inspired by Ukraine
Russian analysts indicate that the experience gained in Ukraine since 2022 has made it possible to adjust the planning of complex strikes, particularly in terms of defense saturation, radar detection, and electronic jamming.
Repeated strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure have refined salvo firing methods, long-range missile stockpile management, and coordination between air, naval, and ground forces.
This experience is now being extrapolated to conventional war scenarios in Asia against states with integrated defenses, such as Japan.
A thinly veiled political warning
Although no timetable for implementation is mentioned in this publication, the decision to make such a scenario public marks a further step in Russia’s intimidation strategy. Japan, although not a member of NATO, is designated as a military extension of Washington in the Asia-Pacific region, and therefore as a potential target in the event of an indirect conflict between powers.
This rhetoric is not new, but the granularity of the analysis and the geographical precision of the targets make it a tool for exerting pressure both externally and internally. In Russia, this type of content fuels a discourse legitimizing rearmament and confrontation with so-called hostile powers.
A logic of asymmetric counterstrike
This Russian scenario also reveals the limits of Japan’s strictly defensive posture. By seeking to acquire conventional deterrents, such as Typhoon MRVs or extended Type 12 missiles, Tokyo runs the risk of being reclassified as an active player in an offensive architecture perceived by Moscow.
This raises a central strategic question: can we strengthen our response capacity without provoking an anticipated escalation? Russia responds with a threat: any system capable of striking its territory will be treated as an immediate target, even outside of open conflict.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.