Ranked fourth in the world, the IAF must fill gaps in fighter jets, AWACS, transport aircraft, and helicopters. Programs, budgets, deadlines, and risks are scrutinized.
The strategic context and the 2025 snapshot
The Indian Air Force is recognized as the fourth largest air force in the world in terms of fleet size. This position is due to its Soviet heritage, national industrialization, and recent Western acquisitions. But behind the aggregate figures, operational capacity is suffering: active fighter squadrons are slipping from 31 to 29 units, while the target format remains 42 squadrons. The MiG-21s are leaving the scene; the Jaguar, Mirage 2000, and MiG-29 are approaching the end of their service life by the end of the decade. Availability remains constrained by the average age of the airframes, cannibalization, and strained supply chains.
This capacity gap comes at a time when India must maintain a two-front posture. In the west, rivalry with Pakistan requires sustained alertness. In the north and east, Chinese air and maritime pressure in the Nansei and Ladakh regions calls for extended reach and persistent surveillance. In this context, New Delhi is pushing for modernization in four areas: fighters, early warning systems (AWACS/AEW&C), transport and refueling, and helicopters. The aggregate requirements amount to “up to 400 aircraft” over 10 to 15 years if replacements and increases in allocation are added together for all fleets.
The current combat fleet and fighter requirements
The front-line fleet is centered around the Su-30MKI (heavy multi-role), Rafale (multi-role), Tejas Mk1/Mk1A (light), plus declining fleets (Jaguar, MiG-29UPG, Mirage 2000I/TI). The impasse is simple: even with the arrival of the Tejas Mk1A, natural withdrawals exceed entries, resulting in a fighter capacity in format until the early 2030s.
On the acquisition side, India has approved an additional 97 Tejas Mk1As (after 83 committed), bringing the target to over 180 aircraft. At the same time, the Tejas Mk2 program (medium category, GE F414 engine) is set to replace the Jaguar, Mirage 2000, and MiG-29. Industrial milestones point to a roll-out in 2025-2026, a first flight in 2026, production starting in 2029, and ramp-up to 16–24 aircraft/year in early 2030. At peak production, 110–210 Tejas Mk2s are expected for six to ten squadrons, depending on actual retirements.
The MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) remains the big unknown: the IAF is pushing for a package of 114 aircraft via a state-to-state agreement, with Rafale as the industrial favorite given the existing infrastructure (bases, simulators, Meteor/MICA/Safran AASM weapons). If we add MRFA (114) + Tejas Mk1A (≈180) + Tejas Mk2 (≥110), the range of “up to 400” takes shape, but everything will depend on budgetary decisions and actual production rates at HAL and its partners.
Early warning systems and aerospace surveillance
The “eyes in the sky” link is critical. The IAF operates 3 Phalcon A-50EI (EL/W-2090 radar on Il-76) and 2 Netra AEW\&CS (Embraer ERJ-145), with a third Netra ex-test expected. The gap with regional adversaries is driving an upgrade: the Netra Mk2 on Airbus A321 (AESA dorsal dome, ≈300–360° coverage) is approved for 6 aircraft, with a budget of around ₹20,000 crores. The goal is staggered deliveries until 2033-2034, increased endurance, multi-track processing, communications relays, and expanded electronic warfare.
At the same time, six Netra Mk1A (used ERJ-145 platform) are being discussed to close the capability gap by the end of the decade. Ultimately, the IAF is aiming for around fifteen indigenous AEW&Cs (Mk1A + Mk2) to complement the Phalcons. The operational benefit is direct: extended C2, low-altitude detection of drones and cruise missiles, BVR management for the benefit of Su-30/Rafale/Tejas fighters.
Tactical and strategic transport, and in-flight refueling
In tactical transport, the switch to C295MW is well underway. The contract for 56 aircraft provides for 16 to be delivered from Spain (2023-2025) and 40 to be assembled in India by Tata-Airbus in Vadodara, with the first Indian model in 2026 and a schedule running until 2031. The C295 (payload 9 t, ramp, basic runways) replaces the HS 748 Avro and takes over some of the An-32 missions while awaiting the MTA component.
For the An-32 (tactical 6–7 t), the IAF has launched an MTA RFI (18–30 t) for 40/60/80 aircraft. Three solutions dominate: Embraer C-390 (26 t), Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 (20 t, already in the fleet with 12 units), Airbus A400M (37 t, beyond the MTA size but relevant for the altiplano). This is a decision with a strong industrial footprint, with Mahindra/Embraer and Tata/Lockheed/Airbus partnerships already in place.
Strategic transport relies on 11 C-17As (discontinued) and aging Il-76s. Hence the priority given to tankers to extend range. The Il-78MKIs suffer from recurring unavailability; the IAF has therefore leased a KC-135 (Metrea) and is considering leasing French A330 MRTTs, pending an order for six new tankers. Refueling is essential for the optimal use of Su-30MKIs and Rafales over the maritime and Himalayan arcs.
Helicopters: attack, utility, high altitude
Verticality is progressing. India has notified 156 LCH Prachands (66 IAF, 90 Army) for ₹62,700 crores, with deliveries spread over 5 years after T0+3 years of industrial start-up. The LCH covers high altitude attack (operations ≥5,000 m), a gap revealed after Kargil. The IAF also has 22 AH-64E Apache (heavy attack) and 15 CH-47F(I) Chinook (heavy) helicopters, while the ALH Dhruv fleet covers medium utility.
At the entry level, the IAF and the Army are aiming to revive the LUH Mk1 (3 t) segment. A complementary RFI for approximately 200 light helicopters was published in the summer of 2025 to replace Cheetah/Chetak at altitude and in the desert. The challenges: cost per hour, power margin in hot/high conditions, and a robust local supply chain for critical parts (gearboxes, composite blades).
Budgetary and industrial assessment and bottlenecks
Recent large-scale projects give an idea of the scale involved: 97 Tejas Mk1A for ≈₹62,000 crores, 6 Netra Mk2s for ≈₹20,000 crores, 156 LCHs for ₹62,700 crores, 56 C295s for ≈$2.5 billion. Added to this are MRFA (114), Tejas Mk2 (development and series), AWACS Mk1A, refueling aircraft, and MTA. Two factors are amplifying the pressure: the depreciation of the yen/dollar against the rupee on imported components (sensors, engines) and the industrial learning curve (production rates, quality, tier 2/3 suppliers).
The sticking point on the fighter side is stable delivery. HAL has announced a production rate of 16–24 Tejas per year starting next fiscal year, subject to the supply of GE engines and equipment (AESA, EW). The F414 is gaining ground with a local production agreement and high level of technology transfer; however, there remains the challenge of critical processes (monocrystalline blades, coatings) and the subcontractor ecosystem. On the AEW\&C side, the A321 conversion (structural reinforcements, dorsal mast, cooling) is a major undertaking; weather (rain, dust) requires multi-sensor chains (radar + IR/EO + ESM).
Finally, MCO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) consumes an increasing share of resources. An AWACS typically requires 8–10 hours of maintenance for 1 hour of useful flight time in sustained missions; a Su-30MKI requires a large chain of aggregates. MCO budget lines must grow in parallel with the fleets to avoid erosion of availability beyond 3–5 years of operation.
Operational expectations and risks
The expectations are clear. On the fighter side, the 35–36 squadron floor must be filled quickly and return to 40+ by 2032-2035. On the ISR side, the IAF must maintain a multi-theater AWACS permanence and network the country with NATO-level data links. In terms of transport, the C295s must relieve congestion on the An-32 and pave the way for the MTA. Helicopters must secure the Himalayas, support high-altitude posts, and increase anti-armor lethality.
The risks are commensurate with the program: schedule slippage on Tejas Mk2, budgetary arbitration between MRFA and domestic production, sustainability of AWACS (costs, crews, infrastructure), import dependencies (AESA, optronics, high-temperature materials), cybersecurity of C2 architectures. The leverage exists: industrialize GE F414 in India for Tejas Mk2, consolidate FAL C295, secure initial batches of AWACS Mk2 and pre-order refueling aircraft to break the “bottleneck” effect.
A trajectory to watch
If the 97 Tejas Mk1As, Netra Mk2s, C295s, and LCHs arrive on time, the IAF can stabilize its format in the early 2030s and rebuild a credible air margin. The shift will be determined by three simple indicators: annual rate of aircraft deliveries, availability rate (fighter and AWACS), and cumulative watch hours over the northern and maritime arcs. Otherwise, the gap between the approved format and the actual format will persist, and the 400 aircraft will remain a theoretical goal. India has the building blocks: an expanding industrial base, technological partnerships, and structured demand. The difference will be made in the workshops, supply chains, and execution discipline.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.