The EU anticipates more than €100 billion in military acquisitions in 2025. Who is leading the way, how, and what are the industrial and political implications for Europe?
In 2025, European Union (EU) member states are expected to spend more than €100 billion on defense procurement (purchases of military equipment) for the first time. This amount is equivalent to approximately $116 billion, according to the European Defense Agency (EDA). The study reveals that spending on equipment jumped by 39% between 2023 and 2024, from €88 billion to nearly €100-110 billion. This shift reflects a systematic effort to fill the capability gaps highlighted by the tense geopolitical context (war in Ukraine, Russian reinforcement, uncertainties about Western support). Beyond the figures, it is the way in which Europe finances, organizes, and coordinates its purchases that is changing.
Level of spending: growth and projections
In 2024, EU members spent €88 billion on military equipment, compared to a significantly lower amount in 2023. According to the EDA report of September 1, 2025, the 39% increase marks the strongest annual growth in this area in several years. For 2025, the EDA forecasts that defense procurement will exceed €100 billion, representing an increase of more than 13% to 15% compared to 2024. At the same time, overall defense investment (acquisition + modernization + infrastructure) in the EU is expected to reach nearly €130 billion for the year, compared to €106 billion in 2024. Research and development (R&D) is also showing growth: +20% in 2024, reaching €13 billion, and projected to reach €17 billion in 2025. Finally, total defense spending (personnel, operations, equipment) is expected to climb from €343 billion to approximately €381 billion at constant prices.
Funding: public sources and common mechanisms
The increase in defense spending is largely based on national budgets, but also on shared European mechanisms. The ReArm Europe initiative (renamed Readiness 2030) proposes a €150 billion loan package to member states to accelerate re-equipment. This plan aims to mobilize up to €800 billion over several years through five main levers: fiscal flexibility, joint loans, redeployment of existing funds, an increased role for the European Investment Bank (EIB), and mobilization of private capital. The European Defense Fund (EDF) is also contributing by financing collaborative R&D and equipment projects. European fiscal regulations are under discussion to allow Member States more leeway (affecting deficit and debt rules) in order to facilitate rapid increases in defense budgets without violating certain regulatory constraints currently in force.
Leading countries: key players in the surge
Several countries stand out for their financial efforts, orders, or industrial role. Germany occupies a central place: it is being pushed to increase its orders (armored vehicles, air defense systems, drones) and stimulate its industrial base. France is maintaining a sustained effort in aeronautics, naval and land forces: modernization of aviation, renewal of submarines, missile programs. Poland is far exceeding traditional NATO targets, devoting nearly 4.5% of GDP to defense, which places the country among the highest spenders in proportional terms. The Nordic countries (Sweden, Denmark) are also significantly increasing their share of GDP dedicated to defense. Other states such as Spain and Italy are progressing more slowly, hampered by budgetary constraints or debt. The United Kingdom, although outside the EU, interacts through cross-border contracts and cooperation, influencing European orders.
Priority sectors: what is being purchased
Defense purchases target capabilities that are perceived as urgent. There is strong demand for air defense and missile defense systems, drones and counter-drones, artillery, ammunition (155 mm shells), precision missiles, electromagnetic and image surveillance and intelligence equipment, and cyber defense capabilities. For example, several countries are purchasing or co-financing long-range radars, AEW (Airborne Early Warning) platforms, modern armored vehicles, and long-range surface-to-surface missiles. There is also growing investment in fighter aircraft, but delivery times remain a bottleneck in new aircraft programs.
Industrial challenges: capacity, standardization, supply chains
The European defense industry is facing ramp-up challenges. First, there is the issue of production capacity: factories and workshops must fulfill a growing number of orders within short timeframes. Secondly, standardization: the diversity of systems between Member States (weapon calibers, components, platforms) causes inefficiencies in maintenance, logistics, and interoperability. The EDA highlights this fragmentation as a major weakness. Thirdly, critical supply chains (semiconductors, minerals, engines, electronics), which are often dependent on non-European suppliers, constitute vulnerabilities. European companies such as Rheinmetall, Dassault, Leonardo, and Saab are winning new orders, but face international competition (United States, Turkey, Israel). Finally, R&D must keep pace: innovation in artificial intelligence, stealth, energy, composite materials, etc., requires stable and firm investment.
Political and geopolitical implications
Increased defense spending is transforming the EU’s position on the international stage. Politically, this reflects a growing awareness that European states can no longer rely solely on the US umbrella. This reinforces the concept of European strategic autonomy, as promoted by the Commission. These massive purchases are also becoming a vehicle for enhanced cooperation between states, but are causing internal tensions: some governments fear the effects on public finances, others on national sovereignty in terms of armament. Geopolitically, this addresses the Russian challenge, but also that of positioning within the transatlantic framework: respect for NATO commitments, coordination with the United States, but also a desire to diversify suppliers.
Risks and obstacles to implementation
Several risks may limit the effect of this increase in procurement. The main one is delivery time: even with budgetary promises, production, testing, and certification take time. Another is the actual cost: often, additional costs, delays, or modifications throw budgets off balance. Constraints related to debt and European or national tax rules may limit the ability of some states to invest heavily. In addition, dependence on non-European technologies or foreign subcontractors undermines sovereignty. Finally, political cohesion between member states must be maintained: divergent interests, different national priorities, or disagreements over the terms of cooperation can slow down or compromise joint efforts.
Forward-looking vision: towards what kind of European defense?
If current trends continue, Europe could emerge transformed. By 2030, we can expect to see a significant increase in military spending to 3.5% or more of GDP in several countries. The joint rearmament initiative could become the norm rather than the exception. European companies could form stronger transnational consortia capable of competing in exports. Critical capabilities (drones, missile defense, cyber) will become common priorities. Furthermore, these purchases will have a social and economic impact: job creation, investment in regions, technology transfer. This movement is also likely to attract the attention of international competitors, whether neighboring states or major powers. Whether Europe succeeds or not, the momentum that has been building since 2022 seems irreversible and could redefine the balance of power in the coming decades.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.