The Saudi plan to purchase 48 F-35s for $142 billion upsets the regional balance and raises questions about US strategy in the Middle East.
Summary
In May 2025, Saudi Arabia officially submitted a purchase request to Washington for 48 F-35 Lightning II fighter jets, for an estimated total of $142 billion. This project, which stems from discussions initiated under Donald Trump, would place Riyadh among the few countries capable of operating a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet.
But this development threatens a central diplomatic principle of the United States: the “qualitative military edge”, which guarantees Israel regional technological superiority. If the deal goes through, Saudi Arabia would become the first Arab country to operate the F-35, an aircraft capable of striking deep into enemy territory while evading even the most advanced radar systems. The stakes therefore go beyond a simple transaction: it redefines the balance of air power in the Middle East and raises delicate political questions for Washington.
The F-35 Lightning II, symbol of modern air power
Designed by Lockheed Martin, the F-35 Lightning II is one of the most advanced multi-role fighters in the world. Available in three versions—A for air forces, B for short takeoff and vertical landing operations, and C for aircraft carriers—it embodies the fifth generation of fighter aircraft.
Its strengths are based on three pillars:
- Stealth: its structure absorbs radar waves, allowing it to evade enemy defenses.
- Sensor fusion: it combines radar, electro-optical, and infrared data in real time to provide a comprehensive view of the battlefield.
- Versatility: it can carry out air superiority, ground attack, and reconnaissance missions.
The most common version, the F-35A, reaches a speed of Mach 1.6 (approximately 1,960 km/h) and has a range of over 2,200 km with internal fuel tanks. Its unit cost currently ranges from $90 million to $110 million, depending on the configuration.
For Riyadh, such an acquisition would represent a major technological leap forward, providing its air force with an aircraft comparable to those of its most advanced Western allies.
A Saudi request for $142 billion
According to several sources close to the Pentagon, the Saudi request was officially submitted in the spring of 2025 as part of a vast arms package valued at $142 billion. In addition to the 48 F-35s, this amount would include ground-to-air defense systems, drones, and the training and logistical support necessary to operate these aircraft.
This issue is a continuation of discussions that began during the Trump presidency, when Washington was seeking to strengthen its strategic partnership with Riyadh in the face of Iran. However, it directly contradicts the US promise to preserve Israel’s military superiority.
The process remains complex: any arms sale of this magnitude must be approved by the White House, the State Department, and Congress. However, the US legislature’s position remains ambivalent. Recurring criticism of human rights in Saudi Arabia, the Khashoggi affair, and the kingdom’s role in the Yemeni conflict fuel persistent mistrust.
The principle of “qualitative military edge” called into question
For several decades, the United States has sought to maintain Israel’s “qualitative military edge”: technological superiority ensuring regional deterrence.
Israel was also the first foreign country to receive the F-35, in a specially adapted version—the F-35I Adir—incorporating its own electronic systems and network-centric warfare capabilities.
This stealth monopoly gives the Israeli Air Force (IAF) unparalleled capabilities: preventive strikes on Iranian sites, surveillance beyond its borders, and credible deterrence against hostile forces in Lebanon and Gaza.
If Riyadh were to acquire the same aircraft, even in a slightly restricted version, this privilege would be weakened. For the United States, the question is therefore twofold: how to modernize Saudi aviation without jeopardizing Israel’s security?
Options are being considered: delivering a “downgraded” version of the F-35, restricting certain software functions, or imposing permanent digital monitoring of the aircraft to prevent unauthorized use. These compromises reflect the tensions between commercial imperatives and strategic stability.
A major strategic impact for the Middle East
Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in an ambitious military modernization plan, would see the F-35 as both a symbolic and operational instrument of power.
Faced with Iran, the stealth aircraft would offer the possibility of carrying out precision strike missions deep inside the country, bypassing the air defenses of Tehran or Isfahan. On this scale, the operational range of the F-35 would cover the entire Gulf, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea.
Within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), such an acquisition would strengthen Riyadh’s position as a regional leader and the linchpin of collective defense. Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates could in turn demand equivalent capabilities, fueling a race for stealth in the region.
For Israel, this scenario would require a major overhaul of its military planning. The country could accelerate the acquisition of new Adir units, strengthen its missile defenses (Iron Dome, David’s Sling), and invest more in its combat drones and artificial intelligence systems.
Political and logistical obstacles
While the Saudi project is impressive in its scope, several obstacles remain.
1. Reluctance on the part of the US Congress. The most cautious Democratic and Republican lawmakers fear that such sophisticated aircraft could be used in sensitive contexts, particularly in Yemen. Others fear uncontrolled technology transfer.
2. Protection of sensitive data. The F-35 relies on a highly integrated digital ecosystem that is permanently connected to Lockheed Martin and Pentagon servers. Providing such a system to a country whose cybersecurity is still considered vulnerable exposes it to the risk of espionage or interference.
3. Operating costs. The F-35 requires complex maintenance: its hourly operating cost exceeds $30,000, nearly double that of a modernized F-15. The program would require the construction of specialized hangars, simulators, and maintenance centers, likely in Dhahran or Tabuk.
4. Operational integration. Training pilots and technicians to master such an advanced aircraft takes years. For example, it took Israel nearly four years to reach full operational capacity after its first deliveries.
Possible repercussions for US diplomacy
For Washington, this contract illustrates the ongoing dilemma between economic interests and strategic consistency.
Industrially, the Saudi market represents a considerable windfall for Lockheed Martin and its subcontractors: Pratt & Whitney engines, Northrop Grumman sensors, Raytheon systems.
But politically, the sale of F-35s to Riyadh could fuel the perception of US double standards: supporting regional stability while spreading the most advanced technologies to authoritarian regimes.
US diplomats are therefore considering linking the sale to political guarantees, particularly regarding the gradual normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If successful, the F-35 would then become a diplomatic lever in the service of a historic rapprochement.
A changing regional sky
Saudi Arabia’s acquisition of the F-35 would not be just a military contract: it would be a strategic turning point.
It would bring Riyadh into the select circle of nations capable of conducting stealth operations and end Israel’s 15-year monopoly on this technology.
If the agreement is approved, the first deliveries could take place by 2030, with a ramp-up schedule spread over five years. But if Congress opposes it, Washington will have to find other ways to consolidate its relationship with Riyadh—perhaps via the F-15EX or new autonomous combat drones.
In any case, Saudi Arabia’s request confirms a global trend: stealth is becoming the new standard for air power. Between American economic ambitions, Israeli calculations, and Saudi Arabia’s desire for emancipation, the skies over the Middle East are set to become more competitive than ever.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.