Technical and strategic analysis of the aerial standoff between India and Pakistan, pitting India’s French aircraft against Chinese-Pakistani aircraft, revealing the regional balance of power.
Summary
India and Pakistan are engaged in an arms race that goes beyond the simple acquisition of fighter jets. On the one hand, India is banking on the French Rafale, a symbol of its policy of Western equipment and modernization. On the other, Pakistan relies on aircraft developed or supported by China—the exported J-10CE and the co-developed JF-17—to demonstrate its strategic autonomy and act as a counterweight. Media coverage transforms every contract, incident, or technical defect into an indicator of the “balance of power.” However, between declared sovereignty and actual dependence, the arguments of both sides raise questions: are we truly free when we choose a fighter jet? And what are the consequences for manufacturers, alliances, and the region?
The regional geopolitical and military context
The rivalry between the Indian Air Force (IAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is not only expressed on the Line of Control in Kashmir or in the heights of the Himalayas. It is also part of a broader context of regional balance, involving China, France, the United States, and Russia.
India currently operates around 616 combat aircraft compared to around 387 for Pakistan, according to a recent comparison.
In this context, India’s purchase of the Rafale and Pakistan’s purchase of the J-10CE or JF-17 are not simply individual acquisitions: they are strategic markers. India wants to assert its “technological sovereignty” through partnerships with France, but without depending on Moscow or Washington. Pakistan, for its part, is seeking to reduce its dependence on the US or Europe by relying on China, while maintaining a credible deterrent capability against its neighbor.
Indian equipment: the Rafale and its implications
The Rafale is at the heart of India’s defense system. India has already received 36 aircraft for the IAF. In April 2025, an agreement with France provides for the acquisition of 26 Rafale Marine aircraft for the Indian Navy, with delivery scheduled for 2030.
In addition, India is considering a “G2G” contract for 114 additional Rafales, which would bring its fleet to 176 aircraft.
This choice has several technical and strategic implications:
- The Rafale is a 4ᵉ/4.5ᵉ generation multi-role aircraft, with AESA radars, long-range missiles, and nuclear capability for the IAF.
- On the industrial front, India is going beyond simple acquisition: in particular, it has partnered with to produce Rafale fuselages in India, an important collaboration towards “Make in India.”
- But despite this “sovereignty,” India remains dependent on the French manufacturer for key components (radar, software, weapons). This raises internal debates: is it a purchase of high technology or a new dependency?
This relative dependency is often highlighted by the Pakistani and Chinese media, which present it as a strategic weakness. The fact that an aircraft purchased abroad may involve the sharing of sensitive components, or that its maintenance requires Western supply chains, is denounced as a factor of vulnerability.
Pakistani equipment: J-10CE, JF-17, and the Chinese shadow
Pakistan has chosen a different strategy: two main axes, the J-10CE and the JF-17.
The J-10CE
The J-10CE is an export version of the Chinese J-10C, ordered by Pakistan: 36 aircraft ordered, of which 20 have already been delivered according to sources. The aircraft is equipped (or advertised as such) with AESA radar and long-range missiles such as the PL-15 (or its export version, the PL-15E).
Analyses estimate that the J-10CE can offer a favorable long-range firing capability against certain Indian aircraft. However, several caveats have also been raised: the “export” equipment may not necessarily have all the functions of the internal Chinese versions.
The JF-17
The JF-17 Thunder is an aircraft co-developed by China and Pakistan. Block III (JF-17B or C) is actively marketed for export. For the Pakistani acquisition, recent figures suggest an order of 40 aircraft for $4.6 billion for export to Azerbaijan.
This illustrates that Pakistan also relies on a product that it helps to develop and export, which strengthens its position of relative sovereignty.
Dependence vs. autonomy
However, the Chinese shadow looms large: engines, avionics, and missiles come largely from China. Pakistan therefore depends on Beijing for deliveries and maintenance. In Indian and Western circles, this is interpreted as strategic dependence on China and a sharing of military technology between two countries seeking to counterbalance India.
On the other hand, Islamabad and Beijing argue that this cooperation allows them to reduce their dependence on the West, particularly the United States, historically a major supplier.
The media narrative: communication and perception issues
Every contract, every incident, every air engagement is transformed into a revelation of the regional balance of power. During clashes or exchanges of fire between India and Pakistan, it is common to read that “the Rafale dominated” or “the J-10CE proved its supremacy.” For example, some sources refer to “kill marks” on J-10C/Pakistan aircraft symbolizing the neutralization of Indian aircraft.
This symbolic dimension is amplified by the media in both countries: the aircraft becomes a marker of national power. For India, the Rafale is a showcase of Western modernity and a new strategic posture. For Pakistan, the J-10CE and JF-17 are signs of a Sino-Pakistani alliance that challenges Indian hegemony.
But this media logic tends to oversimplify reality: a fighter jet alone is not enough to win a war; logistics, doctrine, pilot training, and maintenance also play a crucial role. Yet these aspects are often overshadowed by the spectacular image of the aircraft. Media coverage sometimes obscures the challenges of training, weapons integration, and operational readiness.
Consequences for sovereignty, technological dependence, and manufacturers
For India and France
The Rafale agreement strengthens the role of manufacturer Dassault Aviation in the international market and contributes to the momentum of “Make in India.” However, India remains dependent on complex foreign technology. Even if local production lines are set up, the avionics cell and certain weapons systems remain French. This may limit India’s freedom to operate or export the aircraft.
The deal also raises the question of strategic independence: buying from a Western country often implies political constraints and locked systems. India is accepting this for the time being, believing that the performance gains are worth it, but the debate is ongoing.
For Pakistan and China
For Pakistan, choosing Chinese equipment reduces its dependence on the West and gives it access to modern technology at a lower cost. But this also creates a new dependency: without China, the aircraft risks losing its strategic value, its weaponry, or its support. For China, it is a success: exporting the J-10CE and JF-17 gives it diplomatic and economic clout and allows it to assert itself in the combat weapons market.
For global aircraft manufacturing
This duel has a broader impact: it reinforces the idea that the 4.5 generation is the new standard and that non-Western manufacturers (China) can compete. It encourages countries to review their procurement strategies, weighing up cost, dependence, and capabilities. European and American suppliers are now forced to respond to China’s rise in terms of price, technology, and maintenance.
The real technical and operational challenges
It is important not to be seduced solely by purchase figures. Several factors come into play: operational availability, pilot training, maintenance in operational condition (MOC), and weapons integration.
- Despite the Rafale’s performance, India must guarantee a high service rate in complex climatic and logistical conditions (Himalayas, Djibouti, Arabian Sea).
- Several experts point out that the export version of the J-10CE may be less powerful than the domestic Chinese version. For example, the AESA radar or weapons system may not be identical.
- The JF-17 Block III offers excellent commercial value, but cannot necessarily compete on the same level as a Rafale or Su-30 in terms of payload, range, or sophistication.
In summary, each aircraft brings real capability—but this is no guarantee. In a major conflict, doctrine, coordination, and support systems often dictate the outcome.
Impacts on regional balance and future prospects
The duel between India and Pakistan through their air fleets is not over. Several prospects are worth examining:
- India will potentially increase its Rafale fleet to 176 units, which could change the balance of air power in the region.
- Pakistan, in response, could increase its J-10CE orders or accelerate its own developments in collaboration with China.
- On the export scene, the J-10CE or JF-17 could become commercial successes, strengthening China and Pakistan’s position as arms suppliers.
- This standoff also has an industrial dimension: each country wants to strengthen its technological sovereignty. India is committed to local production but remains dependent in some respects. Pakistan claims autonomy through co-production.
- Finally, this duel could influence nuclear or anti-satellite deterrence strategy in the region, as fighter jets remain a key component of military credibility.
This dynamic raises the question: is a country truly “sovereign” if it purchases aircraft designed, partially manufactured, or maintained by another country? Dependence can be subtle but strategic.
The aerial confrontation between India and Pakistan goes beyond simple fighter rivalry. It raises questions about the nature of military sovereignty in the age of globalized technology. India’s Rafale, Pakistan’s J-10CE and JF-17 are each a reflection of alliances, dependencies, and industrial will. But they are not panaceas. True power lies not only in the aircraft itself, but also in logistics, training, industrialization, and above all, in the ability to translate a tool into sustainable capability. The “match” therefore continues, not only in the skies, but also on assembly lines, in arms deliveries, diplomatic partnerships, and regional balances of power.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.