Analysis of Europe’s ability to detect and intercept a Russian hypersonic missile attack, and the associated technical and strategic challenges.
Russian hypersonic missiles, capable of exceeding Mach 5 (over 6,125 km/h), represent a major challenge for European defense. Their speed and maneuverability make them extremely complex to intercept. Does Europe have the necessary means to detect and intercept such a threat? This article examines Europe’s current defense capabilities, the technical challenges posed by hypersonic missiles, and current initiatives to strengthen the continent’s security in the face of this new generation of weapons.
No European country can protect itself from Russian hypersonic missiles
Technically, Europe’s ability to react to and destroy a hypersonic missile in flight before it hits European territory is currently limited. Hypersonic missiles, which travel at speeds in excess of Mach 5 (over 6,125 km/h), pose significant challenges to existing missile defense systems.
Reduced reaction time
Because of their extreme speed, hypersonic missiles considerably reduce the time available to detect, track and engage the threat. For example, a hypersonic missile launched from Russia to a target in Western Europe could reach its destination in less than 5 to 10 minutes. This tight deadline complicates decision-making and the activation of defense systems.
Difficult to detect and track
Hypersonic missiles can maneuver during flight and fly at variable altitudes, making their trajectory unpredictable. Current radars may have difficulty detecting and tracking these craft in real time. The ability of these missiles to change course complicates predictions and reduces the effectiveness of tracking systems.
Limits of current interception systems
Missile defense systems deployed in Europe, such as the Patriot PAC-3 or the Aegis Ashore equipped with SM-3 missiles, are designed to intercept ballistic missiles with predictable trajectories. They are not optimized to counter maneuvering hypersonic missiles. Current interceptors lack the speed and maneuverability to reach hypersonic targets in the short time available.
Technologies under development
Initiatives are underway to improve defense against hypersonic threats. The European TWISTER program aims to develop new interceptors capable of countering fast, maneuvering missiles. However, these technologies are still in the development phase and will not be operational for several years.
As things stand, Europe does not have sufficient technical resources to guarantee effective interception of a hypersonic missile before it reaches its target. Limited reaction time, detection challenges and the limitations of existing interception systems make this task extremely difficult. Major efforts are needed to develop capabilities adapted to this emerging threat.
Russian hypersonic missiles: an emerging threat
Hypersonic missiles are weapons capable of flying at speeds in excess of Mach 5, i.e. over 6,125 km/h. Russia has developed several types of hypersonic missiles, including the Avangard and Kinzhal. The Avangard missile can reach a speed of Mach 27 (around 33,000 km/h), while the Kinzhal reaches Mach 10 (around 12,250 km/h). These missiles can change trajectory in flight, making them difficult to detect and intercept by current defense systems.
The combination of extreme speed and maneuverability makes these missiles particularly difficult to counter. Traditional radars have difficulty tracking such fast-moving targets, and reaction time for defense forces is considerably reduced. For example, a hypersonic missile launched from Kaliningrad could reach Berlin in less than 7 minutes, leaving very little time to organize a response.
Russia claims that these weapons are a response to the development of missile defense systems by the USA and NATO. Their aim is to provide a credible deterrent by penetrating enemy defenses. This technological evolution is changing the strategic balance and posing new challenges for European security.
Current missile defense capabilities in Europe
Europe has several missile defense systems, mainly designed to intercept ballistic missiles with predictable trajectories. The Aegis Ashore system, deployed in Romania and planned for Poland, uses SM-3 interceptor missiles capable of shooting down intermediate-range ballistic missiles. However, these systems are not optimized to counter maneuvering hypersonic missiles.
Individual European countries also possess air defense systems such as the Patriot PAC-3 (deployed in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain) and the SAMP/T with the Aster 30 missile (used by France and Italy). These systems are effective against aircraft and some short-range ballistic missiles, but their ability to intercept hypersonic missiles is limited.
Early detection is a key element of missile defense. Current radars, such as the AN/TPY-2, can detect targets at long range, but the speed of hypersonic missiles reduces the time available to react. In addition, the maneuverability of these missiles complicates trajectory prediction, making interception calculations more difficult.
Europe’s current missile defense capabilities are not sufficiently adapted to deal effectively with a Russian hypersonic missile attack. Technological improvements and significant investment would be needed to close this gap.
Technical challenges for hypersonic missile interception
Intercepting a hypersonic missile poses several major technical challenges. Firstly, extreme speed reduces detection, decision and engagement times to minutes or even seconds. Command and control systems must be able to process information in real time, and to automate certain decisions for greater responsiveness.
Secondly, the maneuverability of hypersonic missiles complicates trajectory prediction. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, which follow a parabolic trajectory, hypersonic missiles can make unpredictable course changes. This requires advanced tracking algorithms and sensors capable of tracking high-speed targets with erratic movements.
Current interception systems, based on the hit-to-kill principle, must be able to calculate the interception point accurately. At combined speeds of over 15,000 km/h, the slightest error in calculation makes interception impossible. In addition, interceptor missiles must be fast and maneuverable enough to reach their target in a very short time.
Thermal resistance is another challenge. Hypersonic missiles generate intense heat due to friction with the atmosphere, which can affect the infrared sensors used for detection. The materials used to build interceptor missiles must also withstand extreme thermal conditions.
European initiatives to strengthen missile defense
Faced with these challenges, Europe is beginning to take steps to strengthen its missile defense. The European Defence Agency (EDA) has launched research projects into technologies for detecting and intercepting hypersonic threats. In 2021, the EDA initiated the TWISTER program (Timely Warning and Interception with Space-based Theater surveillance), aimed at developing a warning and interception capability against hypersonic missiles.
The TWISTER program involves the development of a new interceptor missile, the Endo-atmospheric interceptor, capable of operating at altitudes below 100 km and countering maneuvering targets. The project involves several European countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, and is financed by the European Defense Fund.
At the same time, investments are being made in the modernization of detection systems. The development of new active antenna radars and the integration of space-based sensors are envisaged to improve early detection of hypersonic threats. Europe is also planning to strengthen cooperation with NATO to share information and technologies related to missile defense.
These initiatives testify to a growing awareness of the need to adapt defense capabilities to new threats. However, the development and operational deployment of these systems will take several years, leaving Europe vulnerable in the short term.
NATO’s role and international cooperation
NATO plays a central role in Europe’s missile defense. The Alliance has the ALTBMD (Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence) command and control system, which coordinates member countries’ ballistic missile defence assets. However, the threat of hypersonic missiles requires these structures to be adapted.
Cooperation with the United States is crucial, as they have a technological lead in this field. The USA is investing heavily in the development of defense systems against hypersonic threats, with a budget of over 3.8 billion euros allocated by 2023. Sharing information and collaborating on technologies could accelerate the development of effective defense capabilities in Europe.
In addition, partnerships with other countries, such as Japan and Australia, which face similar threats, could be beneficial. The exchange of experience and technology can contribute to a coordinated international response to the proliferation of hypersonic missiles.
It is also important to strengthen international arms control mechanisms. The resumption of negotiations on strategic arms control treaties could help to reduce the threat and establish mutual confidence-building measures.
Prospects and recommendations for Europe
Given the current threat, it is essential for Europe to accelerate the development of appropriate defense capabilities. This means increasing investment in research and development of detection and interception technologies. A more substantial budget allocation at national and European level is needed to fund these programs.
Coordination between European countries needs to be strengthened to avoid duplication and maximize the effectiveness of efforts deployed. Pooling resources and skills can accelerate the development of viable technological solutions.
It is also recommended to diversify approaches by exploring alternative technologies, such as laser systems or directed energy weapons, which could offer complementary solutions to counter hypersonic missiles.
Finally, Europe must pursue diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and prevent military escalation. Dialogue with Russia, despite current difficulties, remains a key element in ensuring the continent’s security.
The urgent need for a coordinated response
The threat posed by Russia’s hypersonic missiles is real and immediate. Europe must act quickly to reinforce its defense capabilities and protect its populations. This requires a coordinated Europe-wide response, combining technological investment, international cooperation and diplomatic efforts. Time is of the essence, and every day counts in closing the technological gap and ensuring the continent’s security in the face of this new generation of weaponry.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.