Between Ariane 6, Vega-C, and the arrival of micro-launchers, Europe’s space sovereignty is at stake. Budgets, delays, and private competition have created a decisive moment.
In summary
Europe is gradually regaining autonomous access to space, but this comeback remains fragile. After a “launch vehicle crisis” marked by the retirement of Ariane 5, the shutdown of Soyuz in French Guiana, and the immobilization of Vega-C, the first flight of Ariane 6 in July 2024 and the return to flight of Vega-C in December 2024 have reopened the door to European institutional orbits. At the same time, the European Space Agency (ESA) has just secured a record budget of €22.1 billion over three years, including €4.4 billion for space transport, to finance Ariane 6, Vega-C, and a new generation of private micro-launchers. However, the current dependence on SpaceX, the explosion in demand (Galileo, Copernicus, Iris², defense) and the lack of a truly unified vision make this “SpaceOps moment” decisive: either European launchers become more reliable and competitive, or the continent will remain a long-term customer of other space powers.
The tense return of autonomous access to space
For nearly a year, Europe has had no operational launchers to place its own satellites into orbit. The end of Ariane 5 in July 2023, the failure of the first Vega-C flight at the end of 2022, and the halting of Russian Soyuz launches in French Guiana after the invasion of Ukraine created an unprecedented “launch gap.”
The first flight of Ariane 6 on July 9, 2024, restored heavy-lift capacity, despite a problem with the upper stage’s deorbit maneuver, which had no impact on the payloads’ entry into orbit. The heavy launcher thus validated its ability to place up to 21.6 tons in low Earth orbit (LEO) and approximately 11.5 tons in geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) in its A64 configuration.
On December 5, 2024, Vega-C successfully completed its return flight by placing Sentinel-1C into a sun-synchronous orbit at approximately 700 kilometers, confirming its ability to carry up to 2.2 tons into polar orbit.
Today, the foundation of European space launch is based on a clearly identified duo:
- Ariane 6, a heavy launcher for government, commercial, and constellation missions, capable of launching up to 80 small satellites on a single mission into low orbit.
- Vega-C, a light to medium launcher for observation satellites, scientific missions, and small commercial clusters.
This return to flight does not mean that the crisis is over. The first operational flights of Ariane 6, postponed until 2025, still leave the order book under pressure, while some European programs—Galileo satellites and Proba missions, for example—have had to rely on SpaceX or Indian launchers to avoid further delays.
The battle over budgets and the question of who pays
The ESA Ministerial Council meeting in Bremen in November 2025 marked a financial turning point. The 23 member states approved a budget of €22.1 billion over three years, an increase of around 30% compared to the 2023-2025 period (€16.9 billion).
Of this total, €4.4 billion is earmarked for space transport, including developments for Ariane 6 and Vega-C, as well as funding for the European Launcher Challenge, which aims to stimulate competitive offerings from private micro-launchers.
This budget is in addition to the European Union’s budgets:
- the European space program for 2021-2027 (Galileo, EGNOS, Copernicus) at €14.8 billion;
- the secure Iris² constellation, a program costing around €10 to €10.6 billion, 61% of which is financed by public funds and 39% by industry.
In practice, European space launches are therefore paid for three times:
- by mandatory contributions to the ESA, calculated in proportion to national GDP;
- by optional programs to which states “subscribe” (launchers, telecommunications, exploration);
- by EU budget lines, which purchase launches for the Galileo, Copernicus, and Iris² missions.
This financial architecture complicates governance: each country seeks an industrial return proportional to its investment, which limits restructuring and makes it difficult to focus solely on competitiveness in the face of Falcon 9 or Blue Origin’s future launchers.
Dependence on SpaceX and the issue of sovereignty
The “launch vehicle crisis” has highlighted an embarrassing political reality: in order to launch Galileo satellites, the pillars of its own satellite navigation system, Europe had to charter American Falcon 9 rockets in 2024.
Beyond the symbolism, this dependence poses several concrete problems:
- risk of political arbitration in the event of a transatlantic crisis or trade tensions;
- priority given, as a last resort, to SpaceX‘s manifesto and its private customers;
- exposure to US ITAR rules for certain sensitive payloads.
European manufacturers are well aware of this. The CEO of Thales has publicly warned against excessive dependence on private constellations such as Starlink, pointing out that critical infrastructure must remain under the direct control of states or the EU.
The implementation of Iris² illustrates this desire to regain control: with around 290 satellites planned and service scheduled to begin around 2030, the system will provide secure links to European governments and commercial services, complementing private operators.
Access to launch therefore becomes an issue of space sovereignty in the same way as the constellation itself. Without reliable and competitive launchers, Iris² would risk being… put into orbit by Europe’s competitors.
New micro-launchers and the rise of European NewSpace
Faced with the Ariane 6/Vega-C duo, a galaxy of private players is attempting to occupy the niche market of small dedicated launches. The objective is twofold: to offer more flexible solutions and to bring about the emergence of a “European SpaceX,” or at least an ecosystem capable of driving prices down.
Among the most advanced candidates are:
- Isar Aerospace (Germany), with its Spectrum rocket, conducted its first test flight from Andøya (Norway) in March 2025. The flight lasted about 30 seconds before a controlled destruction at sea, but the company claims technological success and aims to produce up to 40 rockets per year.
- Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) is preparing RFA One, a 30-meter micro-launcher capable of carrying approximately 1.3 tons into polar orbit, with an announced cost of around €3 million per launch. The company is aiming for a first orbital flight from SaxaVord, Scotland, starting in 2025.
- PLD Space (Spain) is developing Miura 5, a partially reusable launcher for small payloads in low orbit, with a first flight planned from Kourou in 2026.
- MaiaSpace (France) is designing Maia, a reusable mini-launcher powered by biomethane and liquid oxygen, targeting payloads of 500 to 4,000 kg depending on the orbit, with a first flight planned for around 2026.
These projects receive indirect support through the European Launcher Challenge (more than €900 million committed by member states), but remain subject to harsh economic realities: to be credible in the face of Falcon 9 rideshare or Indian launchers, they must achieve high launch rates and competitive prices per kilogram, while coping with a still modest European market.
Europe’s structural weaknesses compared to the United States, Russia, and China
On paper, Europe has solid assets:
- a comprehensive industrial base covering the entire value chain;
- robust institutional programs (Galileo, Copernicus, Iris²);
- proven infrastructure such as the Guiana Space Center.
But the figures remain stark. The US space budget represents around 60% of the global space budget, compared with barely 10% for Europe, with a much larger share going to defense on the other side of the Atlantic.
China has increased its launches (more than 60 per year), has a complete range of Long March launchers, and is developing reusable projects. Russia, despite sanctions, retains a reliable launch capacity with Soyuz and Proton, while the US private sector relies on dozens of Falcon 9 launches per year, a Starship ramping up, and other players such as Rocket Lab.
In contrast, the European space industry suffers from several weaknesses:
- political fragmentation, illustrated by the persistence of the “geographical return” rule, which complicates any industrial rationalization;
- higher structural costs, linked to modest production rates and low reuse;
- difficulty in attracting large amounts of private capital, although Isar Aerospace has already raised more than €400 million.
A window of opportunity not to be missed
The “SpaceOps” moment that Europe is experiencing is therefore more than just a budgetary sequence. It is a narrow window of opportunity where several dynamics intersect:
- an ESA budget at its highest level, with unprecedented room for maneuver for European launchers;
- an awareness of the risks associated with dependence on SpaceX and US infrastructure;
- the emergence of private micro-launchers capable, in the long term, of disrupting the traditional economy of large launchers.
If Ariane 6 manages to string together a series of reliable flights, if Vega-C maintains its pace, and if two or three new private players survive the demonstration phase to reach industrial production rates, Europe could have a “bouquet” of solutions covering a range from a few hundred kilograms to more than 20 tons in low orbit by the end of the decade.
If not, the continent risks remaining in an uncomfortable position for the long term: a world-class space power on paper, but dependent on others to send its own symbols of power into space—military satellites, sovereign constellations, and iconic scientific missions.
This pivotal moment will not only be played out on the launch pads of Kourou, Andøya, or SaxaVord, but also in the political ability of Europeans to accept that a launch vehicle must first be competitive before it can be “fairly” distributed among the flags.
Sources
Aviation Week, “SpaceOps: Europe Faces A Make-Or-Break Moment In Launch,” November 25, 2025.
ESA, “Ensuring autonomous access to space for Europe,” Ariane 6 and Vega-C fact sheets, 2024-2025.
ESA, press releases “Vega-C complete for return to flight” and Vega-C launch history.
Reuters and ESA, articles on the ESA budget agreement of €22.1 billion (Ministerial Council in Bremen, November 2025).
Le Monde, “With the Vega-C rocket, Europe strengthens its access to space,” December 6, 2024.
EU/European Parliament, “EU space policy: State of play,” November 2024.
Articles in The Guardian, Spaceflight Now, and GPS World on the use of Falcon 9 for Galileo (2023-2024).
Articles in The Guardian, Le Monde, AP, and Isar Aerospace press releases on Spectrum test flights (2025).
Press releases from RFA, PLD Space, and MaiaSpace on RFA One, Miura 5, and Maia (2024-2025).
European press (France 24, Euronews, Financial Times, The Guardian) on Iris² and European space strategy.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.