Analysis of recent attacks by Iranian-backed militias against US forces in Iraq and the geopolitical implications in Africa and the Middle East.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have resumed their attacks on US forces in Iraq, using drones to target the Ain al Asad airbase. This escalation comes as negotiations between Iraq and the United States over the withdrawal of troops continue. At the same time, Iran is seeking to establish a permanent naval base in Sudan, despite the rejection of several proposals by the Sudanese authorities. Hamas, despite the loss of several senior commanders, retains a military structure capable of reconstituting itself. This article explores the details and implications of these events.
Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias resume attacks on US forces in Iraq. At the same time, Iran is stepping up its efforts to establish a permanent naval base in Africa, and Hamas is demonstrating its resilience despite the losses it has suffered. This article analyses these developments and their geopolitical implications.
Resumption of attacks by Iraqi militias
Background and details of the attacks
On 16 July 2024, two drones targeted the Ain al Asad airbase in Iraq, an attack attributed to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. American air defence systems intercepted the two drones, avoiding any potential damage. This attack marks the resumption of hostilities after a suspension of attacks since February 2024.
Concrete example
The attack was claimed by Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a militia known for its close links with Iran. Ali al Fatlawi, a leader of the Ansar Allah al Awfiya militia, confirmed the resumption of attacks without specifying which militia was responsible.
Strategic implications
This resumption of attacks underlines the continuing tensions between US forces and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. The militias had previously threatened to resume attacks if the withdrawal of US troops was not planned. These attacks are complicating the ongoing negotiations between Iraq and the United States on the withdrawal of international coalition forces.
Negotiations between Iraq and the United States
Objectives and demands of the parties
An Iraqi delegation will travel to Washington in July 2024 to discuss the end of the international coalition’s mission in Iraq. Iraqi political sources have indicated that the delegation will ask for the withdrawal of US troops within three to four months, while the US may ask for three to five years.
Examples of past negotiations
In January 2024, an attack by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias killed three US servicemen, intensifying calls for the withdrawal of foreign troops. The current discussions must find a compromise acceptable to both parties, while taking into account the persistent security threats.
Iran’s efforts for a naval base in Sudan
Proposals rejected
Since March 2024, Iran has been trying to establish a permanent naval base in Port Sudan, but its proposals have been rejected by the Sudanese authorities. Concerns about the reactions of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Western countries were behind these rejections.
Concrete example
Iran’s initial proposal for a military base was modified to include commercial functions, but was also rejected. Port Sudan’s proximity to Saudi Arabia, some 320km to the west, raises the strategic stakes of this base.
Geopolitical implications
Iran’s presence in Sudan could enable Tehran to support long-range naval operations and disrupt international shipping in the Red Sea. This would increase tensions with neighbouring countries and Western powers, exacerbating regional conflicts.
Hamas resilience and reconstitution
Hamas military structure
Despite the loss of several high-ranking commanders, Hamas retains a structure capable of reconstituting itself. The remaining commanders, with their wealth of experience, are able to take over the functions of their predecessors and reorganise the forces.
Numerical examples
Since October 2023, the Israeli army has killed three of the five Hamas brigade commanders in the Gaza Strip. The two remaining commanders continue to operate and coordinate the forces despite Israeli military pressure.
Consequences of limited training
Israeli military pressure has limited Hamas’ ability to train new fighters, leading to the deployment of poorly trained recruits. However, if the pressure eases, Hamas could resume its training activities and strengthen its military capabilities.
Recent developments in the Middle East and Africa, involving Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, Iraqi-American negotiations, Iranian efforts to establish a naval base in Sudan, and the resilience of Hamas, demonstrate the complex dynamics and continuing geopolitical tensions in these regions. The situation continues to evolve, requiring constant attention to developments and strategic implications.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.