Jihadism: Africa faces a deadly wave, alarming figures, and hotbeds of violence. Here’s how to understand and comprehend terrorism in Africa.
The current context
Recent data highlights a rapid and sustained increase in jihadist violence in Africa, with a particularly high concentration in the Sahel. According to estimates from specialized research centers, the number of deaths attributed to Islamist armed groups has increased nearly tenfold since 2019. This region, which stretches from Mauritania to Chad via Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has become the global epicenter of terrorism. In 2023, it accounted for more than half of terrorism-related deaths worldwide, or approximately 3,885 deaths out of an estimated total of 7,555.
This increase reflects several concurrent phenomena. On the one hand, the territorial expansion of groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which are imposing their presence in strategic rural areas far from state control. On the other hand, the weakening of national security apparatuses, which have been undermined by successive coups, the withdrawal of foreign forces, and limited resources. This context allows insurgents to strengthen their positions and intensify their offensives, which are often coordinated and target both the armed forces and the civilian population.
The repercussions go beyond the security dimension alone. Chronic insecurity paralyzes the local economy, disrupts trade routes, and causes massive population displacement, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The Sahel, already facing climate and food tensions, is thus caught in a spiral where institutional fragility fuels the rise of jihadism, and vice versa. This dynamic, which is now structural, suggests that the situation will continue to deteriorate unless a coordinated local and international response is implemented quickly.
What is driving this violence?
Several interconnected factors explain the rapid expansion and persistence of jihadist violence in Africa, particularly in the Sahel.
1. Fragile states and the withdrawal of Western support
The region has experienced a series of coups d’état that have weakened institutions in the long term. The military governments that replaced civilian regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have favored new alliances, particularly with Russian paramilitary companies such as the Wagner Group and Africa Corps. At the same time, the gradual withdrawal of French and European forces has created a security vacuum. This withdrawal has given armed groups greater leeway to occupy strategic areas and control trade routes.
2. Proliferation and increased coordination of jihadist factions
The main organizations involved—JNIM, affiliated with Al-Qaeda; Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS); Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP); Boko Haram, and al-Shabaab – are no longer content to operate locally. They now coordinate their actions and exchange intelligence, weapons, and fighters, which strengthens their military effectiveness. Some are expanding their operations to coastal countries, thereby broadening the threat.
- Socio-economic pressure and pragmatic motivations
According to studies conducted by the UN, 92% of recruits join these groups primarily for economic reasons: lack of jobs, lack of public services, and limited access to resources. Religious ideology plays a secondary role.
This recruitment profile reflects the deep roots of jihadism in everyday life, where armed groups position themselves as employers and protectors, taking advantage of the collapse of local governance.
Key facts
The available figures provide an accurate measure of the scale of the jihadist threat in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region.
In 2023, the Sahel recorded approximately 3,885 deaths attributed to terrorist acts, more than 50% of the global total. This figure places the region at the forefront of areas most affected by armed Islamist violence. This finding is all the more worrying given that it is part of a trend of continuous growth.
Since 2019, the number of victims in this area has increased nearly tenfold. This acceleration is the result of a combination of territorial expansion by jihadist groups, weakening states, and the withdrawal of international forces. Hotspots of insecurity have spread beyond historically affected areas to reach regions that were previously relatively stable, particularly in southern Mali, northern Benin and Togo, and along the borders of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for a major share of global terrorism-related deaths. Field surveys show that 92% of new recruits join these organizations for material reasons: the promise of remuneration, access to resources, protection, or integration into parallel economic networks. These motivations illustrate the pragmatic nature of recruitment, in which ideology plays only a secondary role.
These data confirm that African jihadism is not just a military or religious phenomenon: it is rooted in a deteriorating socioeconomic environment, which provides ideal conditions for its rapid and lasting spread.
Concrete consequences
The rise and persistence of jihadist violence in Africa has direct repercussions on local populations, regional stability, and international security.
Mass displacement of populations
Chronic insecurity is causing large-scale forced movements. Millions of people are being forced to leave their villages to seek refuge in safer areas, which are often overcrowded and ill-equipped to accommodate them. Displacement camps are multiplying, putting additional strain on water, food, and healthcare resources. This humanitarian pressure is compounded by the effects of climate change, which is reducing the availability of arable land and exacerbating community rivalries. At the same time, the exodus to North Africa and Europe is intensifying, fueling mixed migration flows and posing new challenges for transit and destination countries.
Geopolitical domino effect
The gradual withdrawal of Western forces from several African theaters has left a strategic vacuum that is being filled by other actors, particularly Russia through its Wagner and Africa Corps paramilitary structures. These forces offer military support to existing regimes, but often at the cost of abuses against civilians and increased dependence on Moscow’s interests. This development is not limited to a simple change of alliances: it is altering regional power relations, weakening multinational counterterrorism mechanisms, and creating gray areas that escape institutional control. Ultimately, this geopolitical realignment increases the risk that Africa will serve as a logistical and operational base for threats directly targeting Western interests and global stability.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.