The US Air Force is revising the cost of the Sentinel programme downwards after initial expenditure estimates were underestimated, reaching $160 billion.
The US Air Force is facing considerable cost overruns on the Sentinel intercontinental missile programme (LGM-35A), which will replace the old Minuteman IIIs. Initially estimated at $77.7 billion, the cost of the programme has soared to $160 billion. The underestimated complexity of the ground infrastructure required for this new nuclear deterrent system is the main reason for this explosion in costs. The Pentagon is currently working to reduce these costs while maintaining the crucial safety and reliability requirements for a system capable of responding to nuclear emergencies.
The complex infrastructure of the Sentinel programme
The LGM-35A Sentinel programme, designed to replace the 450 Minuteman III missiles at the end of their service life, represents a major step forward in maintaining the US nuclear deterrent. However, the challenges of building the land-based infrastructure needed to support these missiles have been seriously underestimated. The infrastructure includes launch centres spread across the American plains, the upgrading of 7,500 km of fibre optic cables to replace older copper cables, and the renovation of existing silos.
This infrastructure is essential to ensure that missiles are ready to be launched at any time, with maximum reliability, particularly in the context of a high-intensity nuclear conflict. According to the project managers, ground infrastructure, although often neglected, is the backbone of the entire nuclear deterrent system. Without a robust and modern launch network, the missiles themselves cannot accomplish their mission.
The increase in costs is therefore directly linked to the complexity of the infrastructure. The need to maintain ultra-reliable communications between the various sites and to guarantee security against cyber and physical attacks also contributes to this increase.
Cost overruns and budget revisions
Initially, the Pentagon had budgeted $77.7 billion for the development of Sentinel missiles. However, costs quickly exceeded forecasts to reach approximately $160 billion. This increase of more than 100% triggered an in-depth review of the programme, notably through a critical procedure known as the Nunn-McCurdy breach, which requires a review of projects exceeding a certain cost threshold.
Even after a review, the total cost of the project is likely to be reduced to $140.9 billion, an increase of 81% on the initial estimate. This budget overrun has caused concern among political and military leaders, especially as the Sentinel programme is considered crucial to US national security.
The need to reduce costs while maintaining the quality and security of the programme is a delicate exercise. The Air Force, under the leadership of Jim Slife, Vice Chief of Staff, has embarked on a painstaking process of examining each programme requirement line by line. The aim is to understand where savings can be made without compromising essential functionality, such as security, reliability and survivability of infrastructure and missiles.
The role of derived requirements in the cost explosion
A key factor in the cost increase of the Sentinel programme is related to the derived requirements. While the high-level requirements for missile performance and nuclear safety are relatively straightforward to define, the technical details that flow from them can quickly become problematic. These requirements include specifications on the size and quantity of facilities needed, the quantity of construction materials such as concrete, and the number of technicians required to maintain the system.
For example, building new control centres and upgrading existing silos requires large quantities of materials and skilled labour, resulting in increased costs. In addition, the need to maintain a secure communications network spanning thousands of kilometres adds a further layer of complexity.
The Air Force has not undertaken a project of this scale since the deployment of the Minuteman III missiles in the 1970s. The lack of recent experience in managing projects of this scale has led to an underestimation of the complexity of the Sentinel programme.
The challenges of managing nuclear infrastructure projects
Modernising an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system is not just a question of developing new technologies, but also of building infrastructures capable of withstanding a high-intensity conflict. The safety and robustness requirements for launch facilities are among the most stringent in the defence sector. Every silo, control centre and kilometre of cabling must be protected against a multitude of threats, from cyber attacks to physical attacks.
To further complicate the task, new infrastructures must be compatible with existing systems, while being flexible enough to integrate future technologies. This means that each new installation must be designed to last for several decades, while guaranteeing the reliability of the system should the need arise.
Having to modernise such an old infrastructure with new technological standards is a real engineering challenge. The installations have to stand the test of time, while maintaining an immediate response capability. What’s more, maintaining a secure communications network over long distances requires the installation of cutting-edge technologies, such as fibre optics, capable of guaranteeing data transmission in real time, without interference.
Cost reduction: what solutions for the Air Force?
In its quest to reduce the costs of the Sentinel programme, the US Air Force is exploring several avenues. Optimising infrastructure design is at the top of the list. The aim is to simplify engineering processes while guaranteeing the safety and functionality of the system. For example, reducing the number of launch centres or using more cost-effective materials are options under consideration.
Another solution is to review procurement processes to obtain economies of scale on the materials and technologies required. Negotiating more advantageous contracts with suppliers could also lead to substantial savings.
The Air Force has also set up a dedicated Sentinel Cost Management team, made up of engineers and procurement experts, whose role is to ensure that every dollar spent contributes directly to achieving the project’s strategic objectives. This approach makes it easier to identify superfluous or inefficient items of expenditure, and improves transparency in the use of public funds.
The future of the Sentinel programme
The Sentinel programme is a key component of the United States’ nuclear deterrence strategy. Despite the budgetary challenges and cost overruns, the project is considered essential to guaranteeing national security. Efforts to control expenditure while maintaining high standards of safety and reliability are crucial to the success of the programme.
The US Air Force is engaged in an in-depth review of requirements to find pragmatic solutions to rising costs. While adjustments are necessary, the complexity and scale of the project require constant attention and rigorous management of resources.
As the project progresses, it is essential to maintain the balance between reducing costs and meeting the safety criteria that ensure the Sentinel system is ready for any eventuality, including the most critical scenarios.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.