The future of fighter jets pits new generations of piloted aircraft against combat drones. Analysis of programs, costs, and military strategies.
The future of fighter jets: a strategic necessity or a headlong rush
The future of military aviation hinges on a dilemma: should we invest in new piloted fighter jet programs or focus on the rise of combat drones? The air warfare of the future will be determined by technological, financial, and strategic choices. The United States, China, Russia, and Europe have already committed colossal budgets to this race, which raises questions about the place of fighter pilots in the face of autonomous systems.
Recent examples show that the modernization of air forces can no longer be thought of as a simple succession of aircraft. It now relies on a combination of piloted fighter jets, collaborative drones, and integrated command networks. The question is therefore less about whether drones will completely replace piloted aircraft, and more about how these two capabilities will coexist and complement each other.
The development of aeronautical programs in Europe: the SCAF challenge
The Future Air Combat System (SCAF) program, jointly led by France, Germany, and Spain, is the most emblematic example of Europe’s desire to remain at the forefront of air superiority. With an estimated cost of between €50 and €80 billion, this project aims to develop a sixth-generation fighter aircraft, called the Next Generation Fighter (NGF), which is due to enter service around 2035.
The SCAF is not just an aircraft. It is a system of systems, including combat drones, advanced electronic warfare capabilities, and a combat cloud designed to centralize information and optimize military air strategy. This model is based on cooperation between drones and fighter jets, illustrating the idea that future conflicts will require complementary platforms.
However, the program is undermined by industrial tensions. Dassault Aviation is demanding control of the project, while Airbus Defense and Space wants a more balanced distribution of responsibilities. These differences are delaying the crucial demonstrator development phase. Yet the schedule requires a first flight before 2030 if Europe wants to remain competitive with the United States and China.
The American strategy: between the F-47 and CCA drones
On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States has launched the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which is set to gradually replace the F-22 Raptor. The investment already exceeds $20 billion. The concept is based on a sixth-generation fighter jet, identified as the F-47, accompanied by drones called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).
The Pentagon plans to produce around 200 F-47s and more than 1,000 CCA drones over the next two decades. These drones are designed as force multipliers, capable of conducting reconnaissance, electronic warfare, or attack missions while being directed by the piloted aircraft. This cooperative approach marks a break with traditional approaches where the fighter was the sole focus of the system.
The first prototypes demonstrate the speed of development. The YFQ-42A drone, built by General Atomics, flew just 16 months after the contract was signed, evidence of an unprecedented acceleration in the aerospace industry. This pace contrasts with the development cycles of conventional fighter jets, which often exceed 15 years.
The rise of combat drones
Recent conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, illustrate the impact of drones on modern air defense. Ukrainian forces have already used low-cost drones to neutralize more than 20 Russian strategic bombers. By 2025, Kiev plans to produce 3.5 million drones in order to overwhelm the enemy’s defenses.
The robotization of armies is now an operational reality. Drones offer obvious advantages: lower production costs than manned aircraft (often ten to twenty times less), no direct human risk, and the possibility of deploying coordinated swarms. On the other hand, their decision-making autonomy remains limited and they are heavily dependent on communication networks that are vulnerable to jamming.
A comparison between fighter jets and drones therefore shows that they are complementary. While drones excel in mass and saturation missions, piloted aircraft retain superiority in terms of flexibility, real-time adaptation, and large-scale strategic integration.
The role of fighter pilots in the face of autonomous systems
The question of replacing piloted aircraft with drones is the subject of heated debate among military leaders. Western armies believe that piloted fighter jets remain indispensable for strategic missions, as human decision-making remains crucial in a complex air warfare environment.
However, fighter jet piloting is evolving. Future cockpits will be assisted by artificial intelligence, reducing the cognitive load on pilots and allowing them to coordinate multiple drones in real time. Pilots will no longer be just combatants, but also technological conductors.
This evolution is redefining military air strategy: rather than a replacement, it is a redistribution of roles. Pilots will focus on critical decision-making, while drones will provide mass and operational resilience.
The cost and legitimacy of new programs
One of the most controversial issues is the cost of aeronautical programs. A sixth-generation fighter jet could cost more than €300 million per unit, twice the price of an F-35. Combat drones are much less expensive to produce, but integrating them into a complete system also requires heavy investment in communications, artificial intelligence, and cyber protection.
Military and technological research partly justifies these budgets. Innovations developed for fighter aircraft often have civilian applications, such as composite materials, sensors, and high-efficiency engines. But in a context of budgetary pressures, some analysts question the relevance of spending tens of billions on a system whose dominance could be challenged by inexpensive drones.
The impact of drones on fighter aviation is therefore twofold: they are forcing a rethink of operational doctrine and fueling the debate on the financial sustainability of major programs.
The future of military aviation: towards human-machine cooperation
The evolution of combat aircraft is not moving towards complete substitution, but towards increased cooperation between drones and piloted fighters. Modern air defense will be based on hybrid architectures, where each aircraft has a specific function.
In this model, piloted aircraft will retain decision-making capacity, flexibility, and command, while drones will provide mass, endurance, and saturation of enemy defenses. The future of military aviation therefore relies less on opposition than on the gradual integration of systems.
Air superiority in the coming decades will depend on the ability to combine human intelligence with the power of autonomous systems. Armies that successfully make this transition will have a decisive strategic advantage in the air warfare of the future.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.