Admiral Samuel Paparo reveals that US forces are ready to intervene against aggression in the South China Sea. Analysis of military options.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, has announced that US forces have a “range of options ’ to respond to growing aggression in the South China Sea, particularly in the face of Chinese tactics in this disputed region. These options, prepared in coordination with the Philippines, are aimed at countering the “grey zone tactics ’ used by China, which include unconventional actions such as the use of water cannons or blocking ships. These measures, while falling short of an armed attack, threaten regional stability and could lead to military escalation.
Rising tensions in the South China Sea
The South China Sea is a strategic area disputed by several countries, including China, the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. This region is at the centre of many tensions due to its wealth of natural resources and its geostrategic importance for maritime trade. China claims almost the entire area, using a controversial delimitation known as the “nine-dash line ’. However, these claims have been widely rejected by the international community, including by an international tribunal in 2016 which invalidated China’s claims.
Despite this ruling, China continues to strengthen its military presence in the region, building artificial islands and deploying naval forces. Tactics employed by China include the use of water cannons to harass Philippine vessels, the blocking of supply ships, and even the use of military-grade lasers to disrupt operations. These actions, part of what are known as “grey zone tactics ’, are deliberately designed to remain below the threshold of armed conflict, complicating the response of opposing forces.
US military options in the face of Chinese aggression
In response to these provocations, Admiral Samuel Paparo has stated that US forces, in coordination with the Philippines, are prepared to deploy a “range of options ’ to counter Chinese actions. These options, although not detailed for security reasons, are likely to include deterrence operations and protection of Philippine vessels. The United States, under its 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines, has an obligation to support its ally in the event of an armed attack. However, Chinese actions to date have not met this threshold, leaving the US military response in an ambiguous zone.
Joint military exercises such as Balikatan (which means ‘shoulder to shoulder’ in Tagalog) are clear manifestations of the military cooperation between the two countries. In April 2024, more than 16,000 American and Filipino troops took part in these exercises, some of which took place directly in the South China Sea. These manoeuvres are intended not only to strengthen the capacity of Philippine forces, but also to send a strong message to China about the determination of the United States to defend its allies.
The geopolitical implications of American intervention
The direct involvement of US forces in the South China Sea could have major geopolitical consequences. Such intervention could lead to direct confrontation with Chinese forces, increasing the risk of military conflict between the two powers. An escalation in the region could disrupt global trade, given that the South China Sea is one of the world’s most important shipping routes, with around 30%** of global maritime trade passing through it.
In addition, the introduction of advanced weapons, such as the medium-range missile systems recently deployed by the United States in the northern Philippines, could exacerbate tensions. These systems, capable of striking targets on the Chinese mainland, have already provoked virulent reactions from Beijing, which sees their presence as a direct threat to its national security. China has warned that the deployment of these weapons could trigger an arms race in the region, further undermining stability.
Future prospects and possible strategies
Faced with this complex situation, there are several possible scenarios. If tensions continue to escalate, the Philippines may be forced to request more direct military support from the United States. Such a request could involve escorts of Philippine vessels by the US Navy or even joint patrols in the South China Sea. However, such a move would carry significant risks, not least the possibility of collisions or armed incidents with Chinese forces, which could quickly degenerate into open conflict.
On the other hand, the US and the Philippines could seek to strengthen their diplomatic cooperation with other countries in the region, such as Japan, Australia and India, to form a broader coalition capable of counterbalancing China’s growing influence. Such alliances could include joint military exercises, intelligence exchanges and greater coordination on maritime security issues.
The situation in the South China Sea remains extremely volatile. The United States’ military and diplomatic options, while numerous, must be weighed carefully to avoid an uncontrolled escalation that could have global repercussions. Future developments will largely depend on China’s actions and the ability of the United States and its allies to deter further aggression in this strategic region.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.