A recent study suggests that the universe will collapse in 33 billion years, challenging the current model of dark energy.
A new theoretical study, based on the latest data from the DES and DESI surveys, suggests that the universe could begin to collapse in around 10 billion years, ending in a final singularity after 33 billion years of existence. This scenario is based on a new model of dark energy, in which it is no longer constant but evolving, combining the action of an axion field and a negative cosmological constant. If this model is confirmed, it would call into question the foundations of modern cosmology, in particular the principle of indefinite accelerated expansion. However, the current data remains to be confirmed and these hypotheses remain speculative at this stage.
A hypothesis based on the evolution of dark energy
Current cosmological models consider that the expansion of the universe is accelerated by a constant dark energy, defined in the theory of general relativity as the cosmological constant. Introduced by Einstein, this constant (Λ) represents a density of energy in the vacuum, responsible for the acceleration of the expansion of space-time for about 5 billion years.
However, recent measurements by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest that this dark energy may vary over time. If confirmed, this evolution would challenge the standard ΛCDM cosmological model, which is based on an invariant cosmological constant.
The DES, conducted between 2013 and 2019, observed approximately 300 million galaxies over an area of 5,000 square degrees. The more recent DESI is still ongoing and aims to map the spectrum of more than 35 million galaxies and quasars to reconstruct the history of the expansion of the universe over the last 11 billion years. Both projects seek to accurately measure the effect of dark energy on the structure of the universe.
The data extracted show slight tensions with the standard model, including indications that the rate of expansion of the universe (Hubble constant) does not match the predictions of the ΛCDM model on all time scales. This discrepancy fuels the hypothesis that dark energy may be more complex than a simple constant field, and potentially time-dependent.
A new model combining axions and a negative constant
To explain these discrepancies, researchers have proposed a two-component model for dark energy. The first component is based on axions, hypothetical extremely light particles that are thought to interact very weakly with matter. Originally developed in particle physics to solve the CP problem in quantum chromodynamics, axions are now considered in cosmology as a potential component of dark energy or dark matter.
In this model, axions would fill all of cosmic space, exerting a repulsive effect similar to that of the cosmological constant. Their presence would explain the current acceleration of the universe without resorting to a strong constant.
But the second ingredient of the model is a negative cosmological constant. Unlike the currently accepted positive value, this version reverses the gravitational effect: it acts as a large-scale attractive force, slowing down the expansion of the universe and eventually reversing it.
According to the study’s authors, this dual mechanism provides a better fit with DES and DESI data than classical models. The idea is that axions currently dominate the expansion, but their influence will diminish over time. When this dilution occurs, the negative constant will take over, reversing the cosmic dynamic.
A universal collapse in two phases over 20 billion years
If this model is correct, the reversal of expansion would begin in 10 billion years, well before the “heat death” predicted in other cosmological scenarios. The universe would then enter a phase known as the Big Crunch.
This phenomenon, symmetrical to the Big Bang, would lead to a gradual contraction of space, bringing galaxies closer together and increasing overall density and temperature. Stars, galaxies, nebulae, and all cosmic structures would be compressed until they reached a new gravitational singularity, in which the current laws of physics would cease to apply.
This contraction phase would last approximately 10 billion years, until the total end of the universe in 33.1 billion years (compared to the current estimate of infinite duration). By way of comparison, the universe is now around 13.8 billion years old, which means that more than 70% of its theoretical lifespan would already have elapsed in this scenario.
This perspective offers a radically different view of the cosmic future: no longer an eternal expansion leading to extreme dilution, but a closed cycle, in which the universe goes through a phase of extreme densification.
Theoretical consequences and implications for cosmology
The proposal of a universe with a finite lifespan overturns several foundations of contemporary cosmology. First, it introduces the idea of an unstable universe, conditioned by parameters that evolve over time. Second, it reopens the debate on the exact nature of dark energy, which remains one of the most enigmatic components of the observable universe (estimated at 68% of its energy content).
If dark energy is indeed variable, this could also suggest the existence of dynamic scalar fields, such as those proposed in quintessence models or modified gravity theories. Many physicists already consider the cosmological constant to be a provisional term, for lack of a more coherent alternative. But so far, no alternative model has found solid empirical validation.
The presence of a negative constant is also conceptually burdensome. In models derived from string theory, for example, negative constants are considered incompatible with a stable universe in the long term. Their inclusion could require a revision of the entire structure of the field equations that describe gravity on a cosmic scale.
Finally, from a philosophical and methodological standpoint, this type of model illustrates the fragility of very long-term projections built on still incomplete foundations. If the universe collapses in 33 billion years, it will not change our current existence. But it raises another question: how much can we trust cosmological models when the fundamental parameters are still uncertain?
A highly speculative scenario
It is important to emphasize that this model has not been validated by peer-reviewed publications. It is based on preliminary data adjustments, and its conclusions may be strongly challenged by future results from DESI observation campaigns (which are set to continue until 2026) or other instruments such as Euclid, launched by the ESA in 2023, which maps dark matter and dark energy with unprecedented accuracy.
In addition, uncertainties surrounding the exact nature of axions are a major obstacle. Although they have been theorized since the 1970s, no direct detection has yet been made, despite intensive research campaigns using highly sensitive resonators, such as those of the ADMX project.
The Big Crunch hypothesis therefore relies on mechanisms that are still hypothetical at several levels: variation in dark energy, the existence of axions, and interaction between the components of the model.
Caution is therefore warranted. However, this study has the merit of reopening the debate on the structure of the cosmos and the validity of the current paradigm. If the model were to be confirmed, it would require a profound overhaul of modern cosmology, incorporating dynamic and potentially unstable components in place of universal constants.
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