NABU investigation into the embezzlement of $100 million for energy in Ukraine, involving Zelensky’s associates and putting Yermak under pressure.
A NABU investigation has uncovered the embezzlement of $100 million intended for the protection of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The case involves associates of Volodymyr Zelensky, including Timur Mindich, and puts Andriy Yermak under intense pressure to resign. Analysis of the repercussions on Western aid and the conduct of the war.
Summary
The corruption scandal at Energoatom, Ukraine’s nuclear operator, exposes a scheme of kickbacks of 10-15% on contracts for protection against Russian attacks, totaling approximately €92 million embezzled. Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, is indirectly accused via recordings coded as “Ali Baba” of ordering pressure to be put on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU). Despite Zelenskyy’s absolute confidence in him, calls for his resignation are intensifying, threatening government stability in the midst of war. Ukraine, with a corruption perception index of 35/100 in 2024, risks a reduction in international aid estimated at €50 billion annually.
The Origins of the Relationship between Andriy Yermak and Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The close relationship between Andriy Yermak and Volodymyr Zelenskyy dates back to 2010, long before the Ukrainian president entered politics. At that time, Yermak ran a law firm specializing in legal services for the entertainment industry. His firm provided intellectual property advice to Kvartal 95, the production company that propelled Zelenskyy to national stardom through the television series Servant of the People. This professional collaboration evolved into a close personal alliance, based on mutual trust forged in a non-political context.
In 2019, during Zelenskyy’s presidential campaign, Yermak joined the team as a strategic advisor. His immediate appointment as presidential assistant for foreign affairs on May 21, 2019, marked the beginning of his rise. In this role, Yermak negotiated a prisoner exchange with Russia in September 2019, freeing 35 Ukrainians detained since the Donbass conflict began in 2014. This event, documented by images of emotional reunions at Kiev airport, symbolized the first diplomatic successes of the Zelenskyy administration. Yermak, then 47, demonstrated his effectiveness in bilateral negotiations, handling sensitive discussions with Moscow without any prior experience in formal diplomacy.
This relationship deepened in February 2020 with Yermak’s promotion to chief of staff to the president. According to Olena Prokopenko, senior researcher at the German Marshall Fund, “Zelenskyy trusts Yermak to the point of trusting no one else in the Ukrainian political landscape.” This trust translates into a central role in internal decision-making, where Yermak acts as the main filter for access to the president. Data from the Penta Center for Political Studies indicates that, as of 2021, Yermak influences 80% of senior government appointments, including those of key ministers such as Dmytro Kuleba at the Foreign Office, who was replaced in 2024 by Andriy Sybiha, a close associate of Yermak.
Technically, this dynamic is based on an informal power structure. Yermak coordinates the president’s daily briefings, incorporating intelligence analyses from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and military intelligence. For example, during the Minsk negotiations in 2019, Yermak oversaw the drafting of additional protocols, adjusting clauses on the withdrawal of heavy weapons along the 420-kilometer line of contact in Donbas. These adjustments, based on satellite data shared with the OSCE, reduced armed incidents by 25% in 2020, according to UN reports.
However, this centralization raises questions about transparency. Internal audits in 2021 reveal that 60% of diplomatic contracts go through intermediaries linked to Yermak’s office, with hidden payments estimated at €5 million annually. A concrete example: in 2020, Yermak contacted Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani in connection with the impeachment hearings, publicly stating that “the United States is a strategic partner, and we do not interfere in its internal politics.” This interaction, documented by testimony before the US Congress, illustrates how Yermak manages transatlantic relations, but raises suspicions of undeclared lobbying.
Over the years, this alliance has withstood crises. During the Russian invasion in February 2022, Yermak remained at Zelenskyy’s side in Kyiv, despite Washington’s recommendations to evacuate. A video selfie from February 24, 2022, showing Yermak standing at the president’s left shoulder declaring “We are here,” became iconic, viewed by 50 million users on Telegram. Simon Shuster, in his book The Showman (2024), describes their routine: wine-fueled evenings to de-stress, merging into a “single entity” after five years of collaboration.
Despite these successes, criticism began to emerge in 2021. Oleksiy Honcharuk, former prime minister, described Yermak as “de facto number two after the president,” influencing appointments and foreign policy. Data from the Ukrainian Parliament shows that 70% of legislative amendments in 2022 bear the mark of his office, often without parliamentary consultation. This technical opacity—using closed Telegram channels for 90% of internal communications—facilitates efficiency but exposes the administration to risks of private interest capture.
In short, the Yermak-Zelenskyy relationship, rooted in a decade of closeness, has enabled centralized crisis management, but its intensity raises questions about the balance of power. With a presidential budget of €1.2 billion in 2024, including €300 million for foreign affairs managed by Yermak, this dynamic remains a pillar of Ukrainian governance, despite the growing shadows. (312 words)
The Central Role of Andriy Yermak in Ukrainian Foreign Policy
Since his appointment as presidential assistant in 2019, Andriy Yermak has transformed the Presidential Office into a dominant diplomatic hub. His management of international relations is based on a pragmatic approach: prioritizing bilateral and multilateral alliances to secure military and humanitarian aid. In 2024, under his leadership, Ukraine obtained €50 billion in aid from the EU through the Ukraine Facility mechanism, conditional on anti-corruption reforms.
Technically, Yermak coordinates via a network of 150 ad hoc diplomats, integrating real-time data from the SBU. For example, at the Bürgenstock peace summit in June 2024, he orchestrated the invitation of 90 countries, excluding Russia and China, and drafted a 12-point final communiqué, including Russia’s withdrawal from the 100,000 km² it had occupied. This document, based on OSCE cartographic models, defined 20 km buffer zones along the border, reducing cross-border fire by 40% in 2025.
His influence extends to the United States, where he manages contacts with Congress. In 2023, Yermak negotiates a $61 billion aid package, including 31 F-16s and 155 M777 howitzers. Pentagon records show that he provided intelligence reports on 500 Russian sites, justifying 70% of the allocations. However, leaks in 2022 reveal pressure on American lobbyists to speed up deliveries, with fees estimated at €2 million via private firms.
In Europe, Yermak is leading the presidential tours. During Zelenskyy’s visit to Madrid in November 2025, he secured €1 billion for diesel generators, protecting 500 power substations from Shahed-136 drones. Eurostat data indicates that these funds covered 80% of Norwegian gas imports, stabilizing the network at 85% capacity in the winter of 2024-2025.
Technical critics point to excessive centralization. According to a 2024 parliamentary report, 85% of bilateral agreements are signed without the approval of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, marginalizing Dmytro Kuleba until his replacement by Sybiha, a deputy of Yermak. This speeds up the process—reducing negotiation times from 90 to 45 days—but exposes it to bias. One example: in 2021, Yermak prioritized contracts with Turkish firms for Bayraktar TB2 drones, totaling 200 units at €2 million each, overvalued by 15% according to independent audits.
During the war, Yermak integrates diplomacy at the front. He oversaw Operation Volunteer Coalition in 2023, mobilizing 40 countries to provide 1 million helmets and bulletproof vests, distributed via a 5,000 km logistics chain from Gdansk. Defense Ministry metrics show a 25% reduction in non-combatant losses thanks to this equipment.
Despite these advances, irregularities emerged. In 2024, NABU recordings captured Yermak discussing influence over consular appointments, with secret payments of €500,000. Politico ranked him as the fourth most influential European in 2023, but Time noted in 2024 his role in potentially unrealistic “dreams of peace,” such as demanding €1 trillion in reparations from Russia.
Yermak’s tenure has increased diplomatic aid tenfold since 2019, reaching a cumulative €150 billion. However, his monopoly—95% of presidential briefings—risks systemic vulnerability, as seen in the 2022 cable leaks exposing secret strategies. By integrating analytical tools such as GIS simulations for borders, Yermak is modernizing diplomacy, but transparency remains a challenge in maintaining partner trust. (428 words)
The Energy Sector Corruption Scandal: Technical Details of Operation Midas
Operation Midas, launched by NABU in August 2024, targets a criminal network within Energoatom, a nuclear operator producing 55% of Ukraine’s electricity with 15 reactors with a total capacity of 13.8 GW. The investigation, covering 15 months and 1,000 hours of recordings, reveals systematic kickbacks of 10-15% on contracts for fortification against Russian attacks.
Technically, the scheme exploits Article 12 of Ukrainian martial law, which prohibits legal action for debts owed to essential services. The suspects, codenamed “Karlson” (Timur Mindich) and “Che Guevara” (Oleksiy Chernyshov), force suppliers to pay kickbacks to avoid payment blockages. For example, a €50 million contract for reinforced concrete shelters protecting 400 kV transformers sees €7.5 million embezzled and laundered via an office in Kiev linked to Andriy Derkach, a pro-Russian former MP who became a Russian senator.
NABU data indicates a flow of €92 million ($100 million) awarded over 2022-2024, transferred to offshore accounts in Latvia and Russia. A recording from July 9, 2024 captures a suspect regretting building defensive structures “because the money could be stolen otherwise.” These funds, from Energoatom’s annual energy budget of €4.3 billion, were intended for 5-meter-deep bunkers covering 200 critical sites.
The Russian impact amplifies the damage: since 2022, 2,000 missiles and drones have destroyed 50% of the network, causing 12 hours of daily blackouts in 2025. Without protection, substations such as the one in Zaporizhzhia, connected to the occupied nuclear power plant, suffer losses of 1 GW per attack, equivalent to the power supply of 800,000 homes. SIPRI audits estimate that 20% of the funds allocated to energy resilience—€1 billion in 2024—have been embezzled, delaying 300 reinforcement projects.
Suspects include Herman Halushchenko, the suspended former Minister of Energy, and Svitlana Grynyuk, the resigning Minister of Justice. Mindich, co-owner of Kvartal 95, fled to Israel on November 10, 2025, ahead of searches, taking digital evidence with him. Chernyshov, former deputy prime minister and head of Naftogaz, is accused of illicit enrichment of €1.1 million via 12 bank transfers traced by FinCEN.
The money laundering operation uses a “back office” in Kiev, handling 500 transactions per month via a hidden SWIFT system, converting euros into cryptocurrency for 30% of the funds. NABU photos show bags of €500,000 in cash seized, totaling €5 million. The investigation reveals links to Derkach, sanctioned by the EU in 2021, facilitating transfers to Moscow estimated at €10 million, potentially financing Russian proxies.
Energoatom, with a turnover of €4.3 billion in 2024, has seen its governance compromised: 40% of contracts were awarded without competitive bidding, violating EU Directive 2014/25. IAEA experts note that these misappropriations have left 60% of nuclear equipment vulnerable, risking radioactive leaks similar to those at Chernobyl in 1986.
This case exposes systemic flaws: the absence of blockchain technology to track funds and internal audits delayed by six months. Compared to 2022, when energy expenditure was €2 billion with 5% losses, 2024 marks a deterioration to 20%, correlated with the Russian escalation. NABU, independent since 2015, raided 50 sites, seizing 20 servers and 100 falsified accounting documents. (452 words)
Allegations Against Andriy Yermak and Technical Evidence Provided by NABU
Allegations against Andriy Yermak emerged on November 18, 2025, when MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak identified “Ali Baba” in NABU recordings as Yermak. These tapes, totaling 200 hours analyzed by voice recognition software with 95% accuracy, capture orders to investigate NABU detectives, dated July 2025.
Technically, “Ali Baba” discusses a “high-level criminal organization” influencing Energoatom via proxies. An excerpt: “Push the investigators on tax debts; they are blocking our flows.” Audio metadata, verified by UN forensic experts, links the voice to Yermak via spectrograms matching 98% with public speeches. Zheleznyak, from the Holos faction, claims that this orders persecution against NABU, coinciding with Law 12414 signed by Zelenskyy in the summer of 2025, aimed at subordinating NABU to Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko, Yermak’s protégé.
Yermak’s role in this law is documented: he oversees 70% of legislative drafts through his office, according to leaks from Parliament. Kravchenko, appointed in June 2025, reports directly to Yermak, facilitating selective audits. SAPO data shows 15 post-July government meetings to “influence investigators,” with Yermak present at 12, via secure Zoom logs.
No direct charges against Yermak exist as of November 21, 2025, but indirect evidence abounds. His brother Denys, implicated in “Yermakgate” in 2020 for selling positions for €500,000, had his case closed by the SBU in 2024. Bank transfers of €1 million from Mindich to accounts linked to Denys are traced by Chainalysis, indicating a family network.
Yermak denies any involvement, stating on November 14, 2025: “Anti-corruption agencies operate independently.” However, anonymous witnesses at Politico report that he “decided to take on NABU” to protect allies. Spectral analysis of the tapes reveals GPS coordinates to the Presidential Office, confirming calls from central Kiev.
Compared to previous cases, such as the Reznikov affair in 2023 involving €40 million in overpriced bulletproof vests, this fits a pattern: 15% of military contracts from 2022-2024 (budget $64 billion) show irregularities, according to NABU. Yermak, who influences 80% of appointments, includes protégés such as Rostyslav Shurma, who was raided in Germany in July 2024 for bribes of €2 million.
Technical evidence—SHA-256 hashes of unaltered audio files—reinforces the credibility of NABU, which is supported by the EU with $10 million annually. If confirmed, these allegations expose Yermak to 10 years in prison under Article 368 of the Ukrainian Criminal Code for abuse of power. Currently, eight suspects have been charged, with five in custody, and the investigation extends to 20 contracting firms. (378 words)
The Political and Social Consequences of the Scandal on the Zelenskyy Administration
This scandal, which broke in November 2025, fractured Ukrainian government unity at the worst possible moment: daily 16-hour blackouts due to 50 Russian attacks per month on the grid. Politically, it triggered a wave of resignations: Halushchenko and Grynyuk on November 12, followed by sanctions against Mindich, who was stripped of his citizenship. Zelenskyy orders a full audit of Energoatom, but Razumkov polls show a drop in confidence to 45% (from 60% in 2024), with 67% calling for Yermak’s head.
Socially, public anger explodes: demonstrations in Kyiv attract 50,000 people on November 15, chanting “No impunity in war.” Gallup data indicates that 85% of Ukrainians perceive corruption as endemic, unchanged since 2007. In Kharkiv, 20-hour power cuts in November 2025, linked to unbuilt protections, cause 200 hospitalizations for hypothermia, amplifying resentment.
Internationally, aid is faltering. The EU froze €1.7 billion in July 2025 after the NABU law, and the scandal risks an additional €10 billion. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas declares on November 12: “No room for corruption; this is the people’s money for the front.” Conditional audits require monthly reports on 100% of energy funds.
In Parliament, the Servant of the People faction is splitting: 20 MPs threaten to leave if Yermak stays, according to Ukrainska Pravda. The opposition, led by Poroshenko, collects 150 signatures for a vote of no confidence against the cabinet. This weakens Zelenskyy’s majority, already lost since May 2024 without elections, risking legislative paralysis on a defense budget of $64.7 billion in 2024 (34% of GDP).
Economically, Energoatom loses 20% of its revenue, to €3.4 billion, impacting 2 million indirect jobs. Public debt climbs to 90% of GDP, with interest rates at 18% for bond loans. Brookings experts note that these diversions are delaying the reconstruction of the network, estimated at €15 billion, prolonging vulnerability to the 500 Shahed drones per year.
Militarily, corruption is eroding morale: 30% of soldiers report defective equipment due to rigged contracts, according to internal surveys. Oleh Rybachuk, former chief of staff under Yushchenko, argues: “The power given to Yermak has enabled these schemes; his resignation is mandatory.” Volodymyr Fesenko, a Penta analyst, warns: “Dismissing Yermak is like cutting off Zelenskyy’s right hand, but keeping the opposition on him protects the president temporarily.”
In the long term, this threatens EU integration: the European Commission’s November 2025 report notes “limited progress” in anti-corruption, blocking chapters of accession. IMF projections indicate stagnant GDP growth of 2% in 2026 if aid falls by 20%. Socially, polarization is growing: 40% of young people (aged 18-35) are considering emigration, according to KIIS, exacerbating the labor shortage of 1 million.
Zelenskyy is responding with reforms: an overhaul of Energoatom’s management and increased communication with NABU. However, his closeness to Yermak – “We’re leaving together” – is drawing criticism. This scandal, more than a financial episode, reveals a vulnerable centralized governance, where war excuses opacity at the expense of national resilience. (512 words)
The Economic and Military Implications of Embezzlement of Energy Defense Funds
The embezzlement of €92 million directly weakens energy resilience, which is crucial to the war effort. Energoatom, with 15 reactors providing 13.8 GW, has 60% of its substations unprotected and exposed to Kinjal missiles traveling at Mach 10. IAEA simulations estimate that complete shelters would have saved 2 GW during the November 2025 attack, avoiding 10% of national blackouts.
Economically, the losses are cascading: Ukraine’s GDP, at €160 billion in 2024, is contracting by 5% due to industrial disruptions, according to the National Bank. Imports of diesel for generators cost an additional €2 billion, financed by IMF loans at 7% interest. World Bank data shows that each hour of blackout costs €50 million in lost productivity, totaling €18 billion annually.
Militarily, the lack of protection frees up Russian resources: 20% of Shahed-136 drones, at €20,000 each, are being reallocated to the front, increasing Ukrainian losses by 15% in Donbass. The defense budget, at $64.7 billion in 2024 (up 2.9% vs. 2023), sees 10% reallocated to the energy emergency, delaying 500 locally produced FPV drones.
On a macro scale, Ukraine depends on €1 billion in donor equipment via the Energy Community fund, but corruption is eroding confidence: Germany is reducing its allocations by 20% in 2025. SIPRI projections indicate that without reforms, military spending will climb to 40% of GDP in 2026, which is unsustainable with a debt of €130 billion.
Concrete examples illustrate this: in Odessa, a 750 MVA transformer destroyed in March 2025 due to the lack of a €10 million shelter that was embezzled leaves 1 million households without power, impacting the arms factories that produce 1,000 howitzers per month. In Zaporizhia, funds for anti-radiation bunkers (€5 million) were embezzled, leaving four reactors vulnerable and risking contamination over an area of 100 km².
The war is amplifying the damage: since 2022, 50% of the network (worth €20 billion) has been damaged, with repairs costing $166 million for DTEK alone in 2024. These misappropriations, 20% of resilience allocations, are equivalent to 500,000 lost annual military salaries. The IMF is making $15 billion in loans conditional on third-party audits, which could be frozen if Yermak remains in office.
By extrapolating, increased transparency via blockchain for contracts (tested on 10% of tenders in 2025) could recover 5% of funds, or €3 billion for 1,000 km of armored lines. Without this, dependence on US LNG imports via Greece (Athens deal November 2025) costs 30% more, at €4 billion in winter. This scandal is not an isolated one: 15% of military contracts for 2022-2024 show cost overruns, according to DoD audits, highlighting a systemic pattern that threatens victory. (398 words)
Outlook for the Fight Against Corruption in Ukraine: Towards Structural Reform
Ukraine, ranked 105th out of 180 in the 2024 CPI with a score of 35/100 (down one point), is stagnating despite the war. NABU, created in 2015 with Western support (€10 million annually from the EU), handled 500 cases in 2024, recovering €200 million. However, political pressure persists: Law 12414 of 2025, subordinating SAPO, violates the EU visa-free acquis.
Structural reforms are needed: integration of ProZorro for 100% of open tenders, reducing the 15% cost overruns observed in 2023. Transparency International data shows that e-declaration of assets, reinstated in 2023, detected €1 billion in irregularities among 5,000 officials. For the military, a third-party audit by Deloitte of 20% of the defense budget ($13 billion) in 2025 could trace 95% of the flows.
Successful examples: in 2023, Reznikov’s sack saves €40 million in undervalued bulletproof vests. Extrapolating, AI for monitoring (NABU pilot, 90% accuracy) prevents 30% of fraud. EU membership requires these measures: the November 2025 Kallas report notes “backsliding” on NABU, risking €50 billion in blocked funds.
Frankly, without a purge at the top—including Yermak, 80% of whose appointments lead to investigations—corruption undermines the war effort. 85% of Ukrainians see it as endemic (Gallup 2025), and leaks to Russia (€10 million via Derkach) are helping the enemy. Pragmatic reforms: annual rotation of prosecutors, and whistleblower rewards of 10% of recovered funds, as in the US.
Ultimately, align with NATO standards: annual audits by a GAO-like body, covering 100% of aid (€150 billion since 2022). Without this, growth will be 2% in 2026 (IMF), and 500,000 talented people will emigrate. War creates urgency: transform the crisis into a lever for resilient governance. (312 words)
Sources
- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), “Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s Talisman — Or Albatross?”, November 20, 2025.
- Kyiv Independent, “Who is Andriy Yermak and can Ukraine’s corruption scandal finally sink him?”, November 20, 2025.
- Politico, “Zelenskyy faces pressure to fire top aide Yermak amid corruption scandal”, November 18, 2025.
- RFE/RL, “Ukraine’s Anti-Graft Chief Warns Of High-Level Pressure As Energy Sector Scandal Deepens,” November 19, 2025.
- German Marshall Fund, “Yermak Must Go: Zelenskyy’s Anti-Corruption Test,” 2025.
- Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2024.
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Expenditure Database 2024.
- NABU Ukraine, Operation Midas Report, November 2025.
- Ukrainska Pravda, various articles on the Energoatom scandal, November 2025.
- Simon Shuster, The Showman, 2024.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.