PAK-DA, Oreshnik hypersonic missiles, and armed drones: Moscow is redefining its air doctrine between strategic deterrence, combined strikes, and industrial challenges.
Summary
On January 8, the Kremlin confirmed that the first flight of the PAK-DA stealth bomber remains scheduled for early 2026. This announcement comes amid a profound transformation of Russian air doctrine. Unlike Western approaches focused on direct penetration of defenses, the PAK-DA is designed as a long-range launch platform, intended to fire cruise and hypersonic missiles from protected areas. At the same time, Russia is stepping up its use of the Oreshnik missile, an IRBM with MIRV capability, and adapting its Shahed drones for air-to-air missions. This is all part of a combined strike strategy aimed at saturating enemy defenses before delivering strategic blows that are virtually impossible to intercept. One key unknown remains: the Russian industry’s actual capacity to produce engines, composite materials, and advanced systems under sanctions. It is a bold gamble. The geopolitical implications are equally bold.
The announced return of the PAK-DA to the Russian agenda
The confirmation of a first flight of the PAK-DA in early 2026 marks a symbolic milestone. The program, launched more than a decade ago, has accumulated delays. Long perceived as a project frozen by budgetary and industrial constraints, it is now reemerging as a potential pillar of Russian air deterrence.
The PAK-DA is being developed by Tupolev to gradually replace the Tu-95MS and complement the modernized Tu-160s. Its flying wing configuration is designed to minimize its radar signature, not to penetrate deep into dense defenses, but to remain undetectable by long-range radars while operating at a distance.
A philosophy opposed to that of the American B-21
The comparison with the B-21 Raider is illuminating. The United States designs the B-21 as a bomber capable of penetrating enemy A2/AD bubbles. Russia is taking a different approach. The PAK-DA must remain out of range of the most advanced surface-to-air systems, while serving as a missile truck.
This logic is based on the rise of very long-range cruise missiles and hypersonic delivery systems. The bomber is no longer the primary weapon. It becomes a discreet and enduring multiplier, capable of launching strategic strikes without exposing itself directly.
The industrial challenges behind the 2026 announcement
Announcing a flight in 2026 is one thing. Achieving it is another. The main challenge concerns the composite materials required for a large stealth airframe. Russia has demonstrated capabilities in this area, but at limited volumes. Western sanctions have complicated access to certain critical supply chains.
Another key issue is the engine. The PAK-DA is supposed to benefit from engines derived from the Izdeliye 30, initially developed for the Su-57. These engines promise greater efficiency and a reduced signature. However, their mass production remains slow and technically demanding.
A first flight in 2026 would therefore be less a sign of complete industrial maturity than a political and technological demonstration. It would serve to show that the program really exists, even if operational service remains a long way off.
The Oreshnik missile as a doctrinal pivot
Alongside the PAK-DA, Russia is promoting the Oreshnik missile. First observed in November 2024 during a strike against Dnipro, Oreshnik represents a new category of weapon in the Russian arsenal.
It is an intermediate-range ballistic missile, estimated to have a range of several thousand kilometers, capable of reaching hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 10. Its ability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) enhances its saturation potential.
Speed, trajectory, and near-impossible interception
The combination of speed and trajectory makes Oreshnik extremely difficult to intercept. Western systems such as Patriot or SAMP/T are designed to counter conventional ballistic missiles or aerodynamic targets. When faced with a maneuvering hypersonic IRBM, their interception windows are drastically reduced.
This observation fuels Russian rhetoric about the invulnerability of its new weapons. Even if this invulnerability is not absolute, the simple fact of complicating defense changes the strategic calculations of adversaries.
Oreshnik as a strategic communication tool
Beyond its military effect, Oreshnik plays a role as a strategic signal. Its use in Ukraine is not solely for tactical purposes. It sends a clear message to NATO: Russia has delivery systems capable of overcoming current defenses.
This message is part of a broader deterrence strategy. It serves as a reminder that technological escalation can precede, or even replace, conventional nuclear escalation. From this perspective, Oreshnik becomes as much a political weapon as a strike system.
Armed Shahed drones, a new tactical level
Another notable development is the adaptation of Shahed drones with air-to-air capabilities. Initially designed as loitering munitions, these drones have now been modified to intercept or disrupt Ukrainian drones and missiles.
This development illustrates a logic of pragmatic innovation. The Shahed drones, which are inexpensive and mass-produced, are used to deplete the enemy’s stockpiles of surface-to-air missiles. Their air-to-air weaponry adds an extra layer, transforming these drones into rudimentary hunters of slow-moving targets.
The doctrine of combined hypersonic strikes
All of these systems are part of a now established doctrine. Russian strikes follow a recurring pattern. First, waves of Shahed drones saturate defenses. Next, cruise missiles force the activation of radars and interceptors. Finally, Kinzhal, Zircon, or Oreshnik missiles strike strategic targets while defenses recharge.
This sequence aims to disrupt rather than immediately destroy. It exploits the structural limitations of Western defense systems, particularly the scarcity and high cost of interceptor missiles.
The future role of the PAK-DA in this architecture
In this context, the PAK-DA would naturally find its place. By remaining discreet at long range, it could launch salvos of hypersonic or cruise missiles without revealing its position. Its stealth is not a tool for infiltration, but a survival factor in the face of strategic sensors.
Combined with weapons such as Oreshnik, the bomber would become a central node in a deep strike chain, capable of acting without crossing enemy defense lines.
An assumed paradigm shift
Russia is no longer seeking to replicate the Western model. It is developing an asymmetric approach based on range, speed, and saturation. This paradigm shift reflects both industrial constraints and a clear-eyed assessment of the current military balance.
Rather than competing on precision penetration, Moscow is investing in delivery systems capable of circumventing defenses through the very physics of their trajectories and speeds.
Limitations and unknowns
This strategy is not without risks. It relies on complex technologies that are costly and difficult to mass produce. Sanctions, pressure on industrial chains, and internal competition between programs may slow down the ramp-up.
Furthermore, the adversary is adapting. Western research on hypersonic interception is progressing.
Defense architectures are evolving. The current advantage is not guaranteed over time.
Russian aviation undergoing restructuring
Between the PAK-DA, Oreshnik, and the evolution of drones, Russian aviation is undergoing a phase of profound restructuring. It is not aiming for classic air superiority, but rather strategic strike capability under constraint.
The first flight of the PAK-DA, if it takes place in 2026, will send a strong signal. Not one of definitive technological victory, but one of a Russia determined to impose its own logic of modern air warfare, playing on range, speed, and strategic psychology.
Sources
Official communications from the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense, January.
Specialized analyses of the PAK-DA program and the Russian aviation industry.
Open studies on Russian Oreshnik, Kinzhal, and Zircon hypersonic missiles.
Reports on the evolution of combined strikes and the use of Shahed drones.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.