The US-led international operation against Daech in Iraq will come to an end in 2026, marking a turning point in the fight against terrorism in the Middle East.
Operation Inherent Resolve, led by a US-led international coalition to combat Daech in Iraq, will come to an end by September 2026. This decision marks the transition to more autonomous Iraqi military management, reinforced by a decade of logistical and financial support from the coalition. Despite this progress, terrorist threats remain, notably from Iranian-backed militias, prompting us to maintain a strategic military presence in the region. An analysis of these developments highlights the importance of strengthening Iraq’s security forces and the consequences for stability in the Middle East.
The gradual end of the task force: a strategic reorganization
The Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR), launched in 2014, played a major role in the fight against Daech in Iraq and Syria. At its peak, it mobilized more than 30 countries and recovered around 108,780 km² of territory under Islamic State control, mainly in Iraq and Syria. In 2017, Daech was officially declared defeated on Iraqi territory, followed by Syria in 2019.
However, even after these territorial victories, Daech-affiliated sleeper cells and groups continued to operate, justifying the continuation of targeted military operations. The decision to end the task force by September 2026 signals two major trends: the weakening of Daech as a territorial entity and the rise of Iraqi military capabilities. This strategic shift also marks the need for direct negotiation between the US and Iraq on the US military presence after 2026. Currently, some 2,500 American troops are stationed in Iraq, but no exact figure for the future contingent has yet been confirmed.
The consequences of this decision for the region include a redefinition of American involvement in the Middle East, particularly in the face of growing tensions with Iranian-backed militias.
The role of US military support in Iraq: figures and impact
Since the start of Operation Inherent Resolve, Iraqi security forces have received massive support in terms of equipment, training and funding. More than $4 billion has been invested by the United States and its allies to improve the capabilities of the Iraqi army. In concrete terms, this includes the training of 225,000 Iraqi soldiers and the supply of military equipment, strengthening the country’s defense infrastructure.
This cooperation has enabled Iraqi forces to develop increasing autonomy in their operations against the remnants of Daech and other insurgent groups. The acquisition of modern weaponry and the strengthening of military logistics have considerably improved anti-terrorist operations. A recent example is the joint operation carried out in August 2023, which resulted in the neutralization of 14 members of Daech, including 4 high-ranking officials.
However, despite these advances, areas of insecurity persist, particularly in the desert and border regions with Syria, where armed groups continue to proliferate. The ability of Iraqi forces to maintain stability after the withdrawal of the task force in 2026 will be a key indicator of the effectiveness of international investment in Iraqi security.
The influence of Iranian-backed militias: a persistent threat
Alongside the fight against Daech, the United States has been confronted with another threat in the region: Iranian-backed militias. Since the start of the war in Syria, these groups have carried out several attacks against US bases and facilities in the Middle East. In January 2023, a raid by one of these militias killed three American soldiers near the border between Syria and Jordan. These attacks have heightened tension in the region, reinforced by continued US support for Israel.
One of the direct consequences of these attacks has been the increase in U.S. military personnel in the region under the command of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). The number of U.S. troops in the area has risen to 40,000, an increase of 6,000 over the usual average. This increased presence demonstrates the United States’ commitment to protecting its strategic interests in the Middle East, but it also raises the question of the future of its role in the region.
It is likely that bilateral negotiations between Washington and Baghdad will include discussions on how the US can continue to support Iraq while reducing its direct involvement, in order to avoid a further escalation of tensions with pro-Iranian militias.
The future of cross-border operations in Syria
Despite the end of the main mission in Iraq, the coalition will continue to use Iraqi territory to conduct cross-border operations in Syria, at least until 2026. The main reason for this is the persistence of Daech in certain areas of eastern Syria, notably near the Iraqi-Syrian border. Due to the geography and complexity of operations in these desert areas, Iraq will remain a strategic starting point for air strikes and targeted interventions.
These operations, carried out mainly by drones and special forces, aim to neutralize terrorist cells and prevent the resurgence of Daech. The costs of these missions are high, requiring ongoing investment in military infrastructure maintenance on both the Iraqi and Syrian sides. In 2023, the US State Department approved a $65 million sale for the maintenance of Iraqi ships, strengthening Iraq’s maritime logistics capabilities.
These efforts underline the need to maintain active vigilance, even after the Task Force is officially disbanded, to ensure that the gains made against Daech are not lost.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.