Tokyo is targeting ¥8.8 trillion for 2026, an increase, with a massive effort focused on unmanned systems and long-range munitions. Analysis of the figures and risks.
The budget figure and its trajectory
The Japanese Ministry of Defense has requested ¥8.8 trillion (≈ €57 billion at an exchange rate of ¥155/€) for the 2026 fiscal year (beginning April 1). This is a record high. The request is in line with the trajectory set at the end of 2022: ¥43 trillion over five years and a gradual increase in spending to 2% of GDP by 2027. Compared to the initial 2025 request, the increase is around +4 to +5%, despite a national budgetary context constrained by debt burden and social spending. The defense effort therefore remains political. It responds to an environment described as “serious and persistent”: increased Chinese naval activity near the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands, North Korean tests and missile launches, and Russian uncertainties in the Far East.
This 2026 budget remains an initial request that will be decided by the Finance Ministry at the end of the year. But the public framework already sets out three clear priorities: unmanned systems, long-range munitions, and air/missile defense. The goal is to achieve a credible counterattack capability and 24/7 surveillance capabilities in the southwest arc.
Strategic context and threats
Operational pressure is being exerted on three fronts. To the west and southwest, the PLA Navy is increasing the number of aircraft carrier group transits near Miyako and Ishigaki, with more frequent trajectories close to shipping lanes. To the northwest, Pyongyang is conducting a series of ballistic missile launches and hypersonic glider tests. To the east, Moscow is maintaining strategic uncertainty through combined air patrols. In this environment, Tokyo is focusing on reach, multi-environment vigilance, and resilience in the face of drone and missile saturation.
The Japanese forces also face a demographic challenge. Recruitment and retention difficulties are weighing on availability, especially in remote islands. Hence the interest in autonomous sensors and effectors capable of maintaining continuous sea and air surveillance with fewer personnel on board.
Distribution of key positions
Demand is spread across four technical areas.
Unmanned systems
Tokyo wants to triple its efforts, with approximately ¥312.8 billion (≈ €2.0 billion) for UAVs, USVs, and UUVs. The priority is to build a coastal “shield,” combining aerial surveillance drones, surface drones for patrol, and underwater drones for detecting threats in the straits. The guiding principle is simple: increase surveillance at low cost, cover large areas, and compensate for the lack of crews. The ministry plans to combine off-the-shelf purchases (United States, Turkey, Australia) and local developments, with the core of the system gradually entering service by the end of 2027.
Long-range munitions
The “stand-off” effort is approaching ¥1 trillion (order of magnitude). Three areas stand out. First, the ramp-up of the extended Type 12: the target range of ≈ 1,000 km (620 mi) transforms this coastal defense missile into a large-area interdiction capability. Second, the integration and support of American Tomahawks: Japan has contracted for up to 400 missiles, with the first operational deployments in the middle of the 2025-2026 period. Finally, work on HVGP-type hypersonic vectors and stand-off air-to-ground weaponry for F-15J and F-35A/B aircraft. The aim is to complicate enemy planning by increasing the number of axes, platforms, and flight profiles.
Air and missile defense
The budget allocated to air defense and theater sensors is being increased (by several hundred billion yen). This includes long-range mobile radars, reinforcement of the SAM (surface-to-air missile) layer, and modernization of Aegis destroyers for anti-ballistic missile defense. It should be noted that a specific line item aims to equip two existing destroyers with Tomahawk launch capability and to continue the program of large ASEV ships dedicated to BMD.
Support, maintenance, and industry
The request includes an increase in MCO (maintenance in operational condition) funding, a sign of greater realism regarding cost of ownership. The local industrial base is being called upon for components, integration, and series life support. HR credits are targeting attractiveness: housing, remuneration, and on-call conditions.
Unmanned systems: a capacity gamble
The Shield program seeks to achieve a mass effect. At sea, USVs patrol at economical speed, retrieve sensor buoys, and form a mobile barrier. Underwater, UUVs travel along predefined routes, inspect cables and the seabed, and report anomalies. In the air, MALE UAVs maintain high-altitude surveillance, and tactical drones take off from coastal patrol boats. The entire system is connected to regional command centers. The key is interoperability: common data links, merged track management, and automatic prioritization of alerts.
Economically, a 12–15 m USV consumes a fraction of the fuel of a 1,900-ton patrol boat. In operation, a UAV can remain in the area for 20–30 hours, compared to a few hours for a helicopter, with a lower hourly cost. The budget shift to ¥312.8 billion reflects this logic: more coverage, fewer crews, a lower marginal cost per patrol, and increased resilience in the event of attrition.
Long-range munitions: deterrence through range
With ≈ ¥1 trillion requested, the “long-range munitions” category aims to achieve a prohibition effect over 1,000 km. The extended Type 12 now covers straits, choke points, and supply lines. Tomahawks offer a range of options against deep targets, with logistical support and doctrine already proven within the alliance. The gradual integration of stand-off weapons on F-15J and F-35 aircraft is transforming these platforms into missile trucks capable of engaging targets at 100–500 km without penetrating enemy bubbles.
The challenge is twofold: to delay, deter, or prevent any hostile action around the southwestern islands; and to create windows for allied naval and air forces. The combination of unmanned sensors and stand-off weapons provides a robust sensor-fuser chain. With high unit costs, the emphasis on stocks and industrial rates will be decisive.
Evaluating budgets against needs
In view of the threats, the allocation appears coherent. The drone component responds to the shortage of personnel and the need for permanence. The long-range portion guarantees a credible counterattack capability under Japan’s specific legal constraints. The air defense portion maintains a protective ceiling over the archipelago and sea lanes.
The question remains of sustainability over time. Japan is aiming for 2% of GDP by 2027, or ≈¥10 trillion annually in the short term. The depreciation of the yen makes purchases in foreign currency more expensive. A Tomahawk or a radar subsystem priced in dollars costs more in yen if the exchange rate deteriorates. The ¥8.8 trillion in 2026 is sufficient to launch the programs, but multi-year payments will have to be maintained to secure inventory, parts, and maintenance.
On the MCO side, the increase is welcome. A long-wing UAV requires ongoing monitoring of airframes, engines, optronics, and links. USVs/UUVs require regular upgrades to sensors and batteries. Without this line, availability would drop after the third year.
Industrial and scheduling risks
First risk: foreign supply. American and European supply chains are in high demand from other theaters. Delays in missiles, IR sensors, or data links would have domino effects. Second risk: software integration of the “Shield.” The fusion of multi-environment tracks and the cybersecurity of links are critical. Third risk: operational weather. Naval lasers and certain optronics lose performance in fog or rain; alternative systems (radar, electronic warfare) are needed.
Fourth point: labor. The value of drones also depends on operators and analysts. Ramp-up requires training centers and simulators. Finally, financial sustainability is a factor: public debt and social spending are weighing on margins. Hence the interest in temporary off-the-shelf purchases, pending local production.
A perspective to watch
If the final decision confirms the order of magnitude, Japan will shift to a defense model based on distributed sensors and long-range effects. Over the decade, the key factors will be threefold: cost per hour of surveillance by unmanned swarms, cost per shot of stand-off weapons, and availability rate of systems. If Tokyo maintains its efforts and locks down its supply chains, the archipelago will have a more flexible defense in depth, with a triptych of drones, missiles, and air defense capable of responding to changing threats without a surge in personnel. Otherwise, the budget announcement will come up against industrial realities and the weight of currency exchange rates.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.