Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercise: MiG-31Ks armed with Kinzhals fly over the Barents Sea, sending a message of deterrence near NATO borders and increasing regional tensions.
Summary
The joint Zapad-2025 exercise began on September 12, 2025, in Russia and Belarus, with maritime and air components in the Arctic. As part of this, Russian MiG-31Ks flew for around four hours over international waters in the Barents Sea, each carrying a Kinzhal missile. This sequence is part of a strategy of deterrence and power projection on NATO’s northern flank, at a time when the Alliance is already on high alert following the incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace. The scenario emphasizes Russia’s ability to launch long-range conventional or nuclear strikes from the Kola Peninsula, in an A2/AD environment consolidated by the Northern Fleet. For Westerners, the lessons learned relate to detection, multi-layered air defense, and network resilience in the face of a threat combining hypersonic speeds, saturation effects, and jamming.
A strategic exercise and a tense international context
Zapad-2025 is the latest iteration of the major Russian-Belarusian strategic exercise, conducted in several phases from September 12 to 16, with activities in Belarus, Russia, and adjacent maritime areas. Moscow and Minsk present the maneuver as defensive, but its timing coincides with recent air incidents over Poland, which have prompted a stronger response from NATO. The Belarusian authorities say the exercise will be smaller in scale than in 2021, but will include high-end scenarios, including plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
The history of Zapad shows that these exercises serve as both operational training and a political signal. In 2021, Moscow claimed to have deployed a massive force (several tens or even hundreds of thousands of troops, according to Western estimates). In 2025, the geographical theater extends to the Arctic flank, reinforcing the strategic message to the Nordic countries and the Alliance.
A hypersonic demonstration over the Barents Sea
The highlight of this edition was the flight of two MiG-31Ks armed with Kinzhal missiles over international waters in the Barents Sea. The mission, which lasted about four hours, was filmed from Severomorsk-1 on the Kola Peninsula. The crews practiced a simulated strike against “critical” targets of a designated adversary. NATO surveillance platforms, including an AWACS, were detected in the area, indicating high allied ISR activity.
From a technical standpoint, the Kinzhal is a very high-speed airborne ballistic missile. According to public assessments, it can reach speeds of up to approximately 12,350 km/h (Mach 10), with flight profiles and maneuvers that make interception difficult. Its launch from a supersonic interceptor extends the engagement range and reduces warning times.
A multi-domain sequence: sea, air, and long-range strikes
Beyond aviation, Russia also demonstrated long-range naval capabilities during Zapad-2025. The firing of a Tsirkon hypersonic missile from the frigate Admiral Golovko in the Barents Sea illustrates the sea-air complementarity of firepower in the Arctic. Coupled with the missions of the Northern Fleet’s anti-submarine aircraft, these actions validate joint targeting chains in the Arctic theater.
Operationally, the objective is twofold: to maintain continuous strategic pressure near the stronghold of the Kola Peninsula and to demonstrate the ability to strike from a distance from a heavily defended sanctuary. This type of posture reinforces the Arctic A2/AD bubble, which relies on long-range surface-to-air systems, coastal batteries, and electronic warfare capabilities to hinder the enemy’s freedom of action.
Tested strategies: conventional strike, nuclear signal, and escalation control
The scenarios communicated explicitly refer to tactical nuclear planning components integrating Russian assets deployed in Belarus since 2024, under a framework of enhanced security guarantees between Moscow and Minsk. The exercise tests political-military coordination, command responsiveness, and the integration of dual-capable delivery systems in a crisis context.
The strategic message is clear: to signal a capacity for controlled escalation and deter external intervention on the western front. The potential addition of new systems (intermediate-range missiles stationed in Belarus from the end of 2025) is part of this logic of doctrinal hardening and mutualization of nuclear umbrellas within the Union State.
A sensitive theater: NATO’s northern flank under pressure
The Barents Sea is a pivotal area: in close proximity to Norway and the access routes to the North Atlantic, it is the heart of the Northern Fleet‘s stronghold. The flights of MiG-31Ks armed with Kinzhal missiles have a strong political and military significance, as they demonstrate the ability to conduct long-range patrols over international waters and strike land or naval targets located several hundred kilometers away. Allied ISR activity (AWACS, northern patrols, remote sensors) confirms that NATO is closely monitoring the exercise.
At the same time, the sequence comes just days after Russian drones violated Polish airspace, triggering a strengthened allied response. The juxtaposition of these events heightens the perception of risk of incident and miscalculation that could lead to unwanted escalation on the Alliance’s eastern border.
Capabilities and limitations of “hypersonic” weapons: what the data shows
The Kinzhal missile is described as “hypersonic” because it exceeds Mach 5 in its ballistic phase. Technologically, however, it is more akin to an airborne adaptation of the Iskander family than a hypersonic glider with a ramjet engine. Its high speed (up to 12,350 km/h, Mach 10) and terminal maneuvers complicate interception, but live-fire tests have shown that modern defenses can successfully engage it. Ukraine has claimed, and Washington has confirmed, interceptions by Patriot systems, which puts into perspective the “invulnerability” claimed by Moscow.
For Western forces, the challenge is to combine air and space surveillance, multi-frequency radars, resilient data links, and multi-layered defense (endo-atmospheric interceptors, electromagnetic effects, decoys) in order to reduce the attacker’s window of opportunity and preserve critical capabilities.
Lessons for the West: detect, decide, endure
First lesson: improve surveillance permanence and data fusion quality on NATO’s northern flank. Flights over the Barents Sea confirm the need for a robust ISR network (E-3/E-7, maritime patrols, satellites, ground sensors), early warning models, and shortened decision-making loops to counter rapid threats.
Second lesson: consolidate multi-layered defense. The interception of Kinzhal missiles by Patriot shows that ballistic hypersonic missiles are not out of reach, but at the cost of high interception costs and critical ammunition consumption. A combination of interceptors (e.g., PAC-3 MSE), C-UAS effects for the “lower layer,” and jamming capabilities against swarms and their relays is essential to avoid saturation.
Third lesson: Think about strategic resilience. Zapad-2025 includes components for striking infrastructure and information warfare. Armed forces and societies must test business continuity in degraded mode, C2 node protection, cyber hardening, and energy autonomy, particularly in the Arctic and polar regions where MTO constraints (weather, terrain, darkness) complicate maneuvers.
A sequence to follow: signals, counter-signals, and margins for escalation
By choosing to conduct Kinzhal patrols in the Arctic while firing a Tsirkon from a frigate, Moscow is orchestrating a narrative of technical and operational power. The allies are responding with increased ISR activity, rotating deployments, and a posture of alertness, while keeping escalation under control. What happens next will depend on the ability of both sides to avoid incidents, clarify their red lines, and stabilize the northern theater, which has become a barometer of credibility for Russian deterrence and allied reassurance.
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