The rise of drones and hypersonic missiles is disrupting air superiority. Technologies, performance, and responses: a strategic revolution is underway.
In summary
Autonomous drones and hypersonic missiles are redefining the global military balance. These two technologies, developed simultaneously in the United States, China, Russia, and now Europe, are disrupting the role of manned fighter jets, which have long been the guarantors of air superiority. Drones offer persistent, low-cost capabilities and can operate en masse. Hypersonic missiles, flying at speeds of over Mach 5, are rendering traditional interception systems obsolete. This dual evolution is reducing the scope of action for human pilots and forcing a rethink of air strategy: autonomous weapons networks, human-machine cooperation, and the development of new anti-hypersonic defenses. Manned aircraft remain central, but their sole dominance is coming to an end.
The rise of two converging threats
Drones: from intelligence gathering to autonomous assault
In twenty years, military drones have gone from being observers to combatants. The simplest models, such as the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and the Iranian Shahed-136, have proven their effectiveness in Ukraine and the Middle East. Their moderate cost—less than €500,000 for some—allows for massive deployment, saturating enemy defenses.
At the other extreme, combat drones known as MALE and HALE (Medium and High Altitude Long Endurance) such as the American MQ-9 Reaper and the Chinese Wing Loong II carry out support and precision strike missions over several thousand kilometers.
The most striking development is the arrival of stealth combat drones, such as the XQ-58A Valkyrie and the S-70 Okhotnik-B, capable of operating alongside manned aircraft. These aircraft can carry electronic warfare sensors and air-to-air missiles and operate with minimal human supervision.
Hypersonic missiles: speed as the ultimate weapon
Hypersonic missiles represent the second revolution. Capable of exceeding Mach 5 (6,100 km/h) and performing unpredictable maneuvers, they can bypass most missile defense systems.
There are two categories:
- hypersonic gliders (HGVs), which glide after a ballistic launch, such as Russia’s Avangard;
- hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs), continuously propelled by ramjet engines, such as the American ARRW or the Zircon.
China has already deployed its DF-17, while Russia has tested the Kinjal, which has been used several times in Ukraine. These weapons reach their targets in a matter of minutes, leaving virtually no time to react.
The United States and Europe are stepping up their response: the HACM (Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile) program and the future French V-MaX, developed by ArianeGroup, aim to restore strategic balance.
A global strategic revolution
The simultaneous emergence of these two threats calls into question the very structure of air combat. Western armies, long focused on the technological superiority of fighters such as the Rafale, F-15EX, and F-35, must now contend with adversaries capable of striking remotely, without pilots, and at speeds that cannot be countered by conventional means.
Operational implications: the growing vulnerability of manned aircraft
The gap between speed and reaction time
When faced with a hypersonic missile, a modern fighter jet, even one equipped with AESA radar and an infrared detection system, has less than 20 seconds to react. At Mach 8, a projectile covers 2 km per second, making any evasive maneuver useless.
Current defense systems, such as the Patriot PAC-3 or Aegis, are designed to intercept predictable targets. The erratic trajectories of hypersonic vehicles render their algorithms obsolete.
Drone saturation: a new battlefield
Drone swarms represent another form of threat. A hundred micro-drones, each costing less than €10,000, can neutralize an air base or strategic radar by saturating sensors and forcing defenses to exhaust their ammunition.
Recent conflicts show that algorithmic warfare now dominates: those who master data, swarm communication, and sensor-AI fusion prevail over those who rely on brute force.
The risk of obsolescence for heavy fighters
Manned aircraft such as the F-15EX, Su-35, and even the Rafale F4 are powerful but expensive, costing over €100 million each. They require complex maintenance and heavy logistics. In contrast, an adversary can deploy hundreds of kamikaze drones for an equivalent cost.
Even stealth fighters, designed to dominate the skies, become vulnerable when faced with distributed, interconnected, and responsive systems. The F-35, for example, cannot intercept a swarm or a hypersonic missile; it depends on the global defense network for its survival.
Countries are therefore investing heavily in human-machine cooperation, where manned aircraft become command platforms supervising autonomous escort drones. The American NGAD program, the European SCAF, and the British Tempest already incorporate this philosophy.
Technological responses and the transformation of air combat
Defense systems against drones and hypersonic weapons
Several approaches are emerging to counter these threats.
Against drones, armies are developing high-energy lasers capable of destroying a target in flight at short range at marginal cost. The United States is testing the HELWS (High Energy Laser Weapon System), while Israel is deploying the Iron Beam. Electromagnetic cannons and automated nets complete this system.
When it comes to hypersonic missiles, the priority is early detection. New low-orbit satellites, such as those in the American GLASS project, can track the thermal signature of a Mach 10 vehicle as soon as it is launched.
Active defense relies on interception by exo-atmospheric interceptors (SM-6, Glide Phase Interceptor) and electronic warfare, which aims to disrupt the inertial navigation or radar guidance of missiles.
Doctrinal evolution: from pilot to digital conductor
In this new era, the fighter pilot becomes a coordinator rather than an executor. From his cockpit or from the ground, he supervises a constellation of drones, missiles, sensors, and satellites connected by a secure network.
Modern fighter jets such as the Rafale F5 or the F-35 Block 4 will be equipped with computers capable of merging data from multiple platforms in real time. The concept of shared tactical awareness will replace isolated engagement.
Future air combat will be based on four pillars: processing speed, collaborative warfare, digital stealth, and automatic adaptation. The challenge is no longer to fly faster or higher, but to react before the adversary, exploiting computing power and artificial intelligence.
The outlook: towards a human-machine balance
The coming decades will see the coexistence of manned aircraft and autonomous systems. Fighters will remain indispensable for nuclear deterrence, initial air superiority, and strategic precision strikes.
But their role will evolve into that of mobile command nodes, orchestrating an army of unmanned units: escort drones, attack swarms, reconnaissance missiles, and relay platforms.
The nations that succeed in this integration will dominate the skies of the 21st century. The others will see their manned aircraft become the heavy tanks of tomorrow: symbols of power surpassed by the speed of algorithms and autonomous swarms.
Aviation put to the test of speed and autonomy
The rise of drones and hypersonic missiles does not spell the end of pilots, but rather a radical transformation of their role. Airspace is becoming a digital battlefield, where connectivity, artificial intelligence, and responsiveness are replacing human maneuvering.
The future of air superiority will depend less on the performance of a single aircraft than on cooperation between platforms, capable of communicating, deciding, and acting together at speeds that the human mind can no longer follow. In this world where speed is becoming a weapon, humans must learn to share the skies with their machines.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.