Detailed analysis of the Chinese military exercises “Strait Thunder-2025A” around Taiwan, their strategic implications and international reactions.
In early April 2025, China escalated its military activities around Taiwan by launching the “Strait Thunder-2025A” exercises. These maneuvers involved a significant number of aircraft and ships, crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entering the Taiwanese air defense identification zone (ADIZ). Taiwan has responded by deploying its own forces to monitor and respond to these incursions. These exercises reflect an escalation of tensions in the region, with major strategic implications for regional and international security.
Background and progress of the “Strait Thunder-2025A” exercises
On April 2, 2025, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported increased Chinese military activity around the island. In the previous 24 hours, 76 Chinese military aircraft, 15 warships and 4 government vessels were detected operating in the vicinity of Taiwan. Of these aircraft, 37 crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, entering the northern, central, southwestern and eastern sectors of the Taiwanese ADIZ.
These movements coincide with the launch by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command of military exercises called “Strait Thunder-2025A”. According to Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for this command, these exercises focused on training such as identification and verification, warning and expulsion, as well as interception and detention, aimed at testing the troops’ capabilities in regional control, joint blockade and precision strikes.
Reactions and measures taken by Taiwan
In the face of this show of force, the Taiwanese armed forces responded with air sorties, maritime patrols and the deployment of land-based missile systems, maintaining a defensive posture while avoiding escalation. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense stated that it had been monitoring the situation closely and had taken appropriate measures in response to the PLA’s activities.
Taiwan also condemned the exercises, accusing China of being a “troublemaker” in the region. These actions have raised international concerns, particularly from the United States, Japan, the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have expressed their concern for regional stability.
Strategic implications of the Chinese exercises
The “Strait Thunder-2025A” exercises are part of a series of Chinese military maneuvers aimed at exerting increased pressure on Taiwan. The involvement of the aircraft carrier Shandong in these exercises highlights China’s ability to project its military power beyond its shores. The Shandong carrier strike group conducted operations in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, demonstrating the PLA’s ability to conduct complex joint operations.
These exercises also reflect a trend toward normalization of PLA incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ. According to the CSIS ChinaPower project, these incursions have become more frequent, with notable peaks in March 2025. This strategy aims to erode Taiwan’s response capacity and signal Beijing’s disapproval of the actions of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, who is considered a “separatist” by China.
Consequences for regional and international security
The intensification of Chinese military activities around Taiwan has significant repercussions on regional security. The United States has reaffirmed its commitment to the defense of Taiwan, sending clear signals to Beijing concerning its opposition to any attempt to unilaterally modify the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth emphasized the importance of deterring Chinese aggression in the region.
In addition, the international community, including the G7 and the European Union, has expressed concern about China’s actions, viewing them as destabilizing factors that could affect global peace and prosperity.
Intensification of Taiwanese defense capabilities in the face of Chinese incursions
Taiwan has strengthened its defense capabilities in recent years in direct response to increased military pressure from mainland China. Taiwan’s defense budget for 2024 has been increased to 19.1 billion euros (approximately 20.9 billion dollars), or 2.5% of GDP, according to the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense. This budget increase is accompanied by targeted rearmament, supported in particular by American deliveries.
Among recent purchases, 66 Lockheed Martin F-16V fighters, worth 6.9 billion euros, are expected by 2026. These aircraft will be equipped with AESA radars, modern electronic warfare systems, and long-range firing capabilities. Taiwan is also developing its own long-range surface-to-surface missile system, such as the Hsiung Feng IIE missile, with an estimated range of 1,200 kilometers, capable of hitting targets in the Chinese interior.
At the same time, the Taiwanese air force organizes more than 2,900 surveillance and interception sorties each year in response to Chinese incursions. Each sortie uses between 5,000 and 7,000 euros in fuel, maintenance and logistics, which considerably increases the operational cost of the daily defense of the airspace.
In 2023, Taiwan also launched the construction of its first air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarine, the Haikun, designed with the help of Western technology, to counter the naval threat. This program, with a total estimated cost of 1.3 billion euros, aims to provide Taiwan with 8 units by 2035, to strengthen submarine deterrent capabilities in the strait.
Finally, the island is also investing in the development of an integrated air defense network and anti-missile systems, such as the American Patriot PAC-3 batteries, capable of intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles and drones.
These efforts reflect a clear desire to maintain a deterrent balance of power in a context where Chinese maneuvers aim to reduce Taiwan’s strategic room for maneuver. The budgetary, material and human cost of this state of permanent alert is not insignificant and raises the question of the sustainability of such an effort without increased international support.
Reactions from international powers and growing geopolitical pressures
Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, combined with a steady increase in incursions into the ADIZ, are leading to growing mobilization from Western powers. The United States, in particular, has reaffirmed its strategic position through the Taiwan Relations Act, which obliges Washington to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.
In 2023, the US Congress approved a package of 7.1 billion euros in military aid intended to strengthen Taiwan’s security, including arms sales, strategic advice and technology transfer. Maritime surveillance missions, such as the Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) conducted in the Taiwan Strait, illustrate this posture. In 2024, 11 FONOPs operations were recorded, an increase of 37% compared to 2022.
Japan, also concerned about the stability of the Taiwan Strait due to the proximity of the Ryukyu Islands, modified its defense doctrine in 2022, authorizing preventive strikes against regional threats. Tokyo has also established a radar base in Yonaguni, just 110 kilometers off the Taiwanese coast, to monitor Chinese movements.
The European Union, although more cautious, has expressed its concerns through diplomatic channels. In March 2025, the European Parliament adopted a resolution condemning Chinese maneuvers as “aggressive” and “destabilizing.” Several European countries, including France and Germany, have sent frigates to the Indo-Pacific region, such as the Chevalier Paul and the Bayern, to support freedom of navigation and strengthen their strategic presence.
However, European engagement remains limited by economic dependence on China. In 2023, trade between the EU and China amounted to 822 billion euros, or 15% of the Union’s foreign trade.
These positions highlight a precarious strategic balance between economic interests and security requirements, where each actor tries to deter aggression without provoking direct confrontation.
Strategic and tactical attrition of the Taiwanese defense: a latent war of attrition
One of the intended effects of the PLA’s repeated incursions into Taiwanese airspace seems to be the methodical wearing down of Taiwan’s operational capabilities. This strategy, described by several analysts as a war of attrition through constant pressure, aims to exhaust the human, technical and financial resources of the Taiwanese army.
Maintaining a permanent state of alert requires the Taiwanese air force to mobilize its crews, maintain its aircraft at an accelerated rate, and renew its stocks of fuel, ammunition and spare parts more frequently. On average, an interception mission costs between 6,000 and 9,000 euros, which, multiplied by hundreds of operations per year, represents several hundred million euros.
Added to this is the wear and tear on the equipment. The F-16A/B currently in use have been in service for an average of 25 years. Each major maintenance cycle costs around 2 million euros per aircraft, which weighs on a budget already strained by the modernization of the fleet.
On a human level, the high pace of missions creates operational fatigue among pilots, ground technicians and command teams. Taiwan faces a shortage of qualified personnel, exacerbated by declining demographics: by 2024, the birth rate had fallen to 0.87 children per woman, one of the lowest in the world. This reduces the recruitment pool for the armed forces.
The direct effect of this Chinese strategy is therefore to cripple Taiwanese defense mechanisms without resorting to open conflict, while making it more difficult to plan a long-term defense. This type of hybrid aggression, using military means in an undeclared logic of confrontation, is a complex challenge for an island democracy of 23 million inhabitants confronted with a continental giant of 1.4 billion.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.