Technical analysis of the SCAF program stalemate between Paris and Berlin, their strategic differences, and the consequences for European aeronautics.
The SCAF (Système de Combat Aérien du Futur) program, launched in 2017 to strengthen a common European defense, is facing major strategic divergences between France and Germany. Paris favors a twin-engine, medium-lift airborne fighter, while Berlin favors a heavy, long-range aircraft. After seven years, no consensus has been reached on the key specifications of the NGF (New Generation Fighter), the program’s core aircraft. These disagreements jeopardize the future of the project, and reveal fundamental differences in the military needs of the two countries.
The origins and ambitions of the SCAF program
The SCAF program, launched in 2017, was intended to symbolize Franco-German cooperation to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy. France saw it as a means of designing a multi-purpose aircraft capable of air and naval missions, in line with its projection strategy. Germany, faced with a different geographical threat, favored heavy, long-range aircraft suited to reinforced territorial defense.
The project also included Spain, to broaden the industrial and strategic scope of the initiative. From the outset, the partners’ shared objective was to replace the Rafale, the Typhoon, and other aircraft from 2040 onwards, taking into account technological developments such as stealth and connectivity.
Key figures:
- Planned budget for the initial phase (2017-2025): around 8 billion euros.
- Development timetable: first technical demonstrations expected in 2028.
Despite these ambitions, divergent visions between Paris and Berlin on design and strategic priorities have weakened the project from the outset.
Historical differences in aeronautical concepts
The differences surrounding the SCAF are rooted in decades of opposing technological choices. The Luftwaffe has historically favored heavy, often twin-engine aircraft with high payload capacity and long range. Conversely, France has designed lighter, more versatile aircraft suited to on-board missions.
Historical examples:
- In the 1970s, Germany adopted the F-4 Phantom II, a twin-engine, 25-ton aircraft, against the French Mirage F1, a single-engine, 16-ton aircraft.
- In the 1980s, the German Panavia Tornado (20 tons) offered a range of 1,500 km, compared with 1,000 km for the French Mirage 2000.
This difference is based on distinct geographical and strategic contexts. Germany, at the heart of Europe, was concentrating on long-range aircraft to cope with a potential ground invasion. France, with its overseas interests and strong naval component, favored versatility.
Structural challenges of the NGF program
The NGF (New Generation Fighter), at the heart of the SCAF program, reflects these divergences. Paris wants a twin-engine, medium-size aircraft, inspired by the Rafale, that can be deployed from land bases or aircraft carriers. Berlin, on the other hand, insists on a heavy fighter, optimized for long-range strikes and superior endurance.
After 7 years, no common roadmap has been defined. According to Colonel Jörg Rauber, in charge of planning at the German Ministry of Defense, this situation is blocking progress towards the industrial phase. Phase 1B, which will run until 2025, is unable to reach a decision on fundamental issues such as weight, carrying capacity and specific functionalities (stealth, connectivity).
Geopolitical and industrial consequences
The stalemate on the SCAF program raises questions about the viability of European military cooperation. If no solution is found, each country could develop national alternatives, jeopardizing Europe’s ambitions for strategic autonomy.
Potential impacts:
- Delays: development of a new aircraft could take longer than 2045, leaving a capability gap.
- Cost: uncoordinated development would increase expenditure, estimated at over €100 billion for each national project.
Against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions in Europe, particularly with Russia, this lack of consensus weakens the European Union’s strategic position.
An uncertain future for SCAF
The SCAF program, supposed to be the symbol of European military cooperation, is hampered by deep-seated structural differences. The lack of a common vision between Paris and Berlin reflects major strategic differences. If these disagreements persist, the future of European military aeronautics could rest on fragmented national projects, running counter to the original objectives of cooperation and efficiency.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.