Detailed analysis of the tensions between Israel and Turkey concerning the establishment of Turkish air bases in Syria, their strategic implications and the risks for regional security.
Relations between Israel and Turkey are deteriorating due to Turkey’s ambitions to establish air bases in Syria. This initiative is perceived by Israel as a direct threat to its national security, exacerbating tensions in an already unstable region.
Turkish ambitions in Syria
Turkey is seeking to strengthen its influence in Syria by negotiating a defense agreement with the new Syrian government. This agreement would allow Ankara to establish air bases on Syrian territory, notably in Palmyra, in the center of the country. According to military sources, this Turkish presence is aimed at securing the region and supporting the restructuring of the Syrian army.
At the same time, reports indicate that Turkey is building a military base in northern Syria, within the Menagh airbase, located about 6 kilometers south of Azaz. This base is said to include an air defense center, thus reinforcing the Turkish military presence in the region.
Israeli concerns
Israel perceives the establishment of Turkish air bases in Syria as a threat to its national security. Israeli military officials fear that the presence of the Turkish air force in Palmyra will increase regional tensions and the risk of conflict. Israel has carried out air strikes against military infrastructure in the region, including the T-4 airbase near Palmyra, to prevent hostile forces from taking root.
Israeli concerns are amplified by the possibility that Turkey will provide advanced intelligence or weapons to the new Syrian regime, which could compromise Israel’s air superiority in the region. In addition, the Turkish presence could hamper Israeli operations aimed at preventing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah and other militant groups.
Strategic implications
The growing rivalry between Israel and Turkey in Syria reflects divergent ambitions. Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, seeks to extend its influence in former Ottoman territories, while Israel aims to maintain its military superiority and prevent the emergence of threats to its borders. These dynamics further complicate the situation in Syria, where several regional and international actors pursue competing interests.
The Turkish military presence in Syria could also complicate the international coalition’s operations against terrorist groups, particularly due to tensions between Turkey and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkish actions against Kurdish groups in Syria have already drawn criticism from Washington and other Western allies.
Risks to regional stability
Escalating tensions between Israel and Turkey in Syria increase the risk of direct or proxy military confrontations. Such a situation could further destabilize a region already plagued by complex conflicts. In addition, existing alliances and rivalries could be called into question, affecting Turkey and Israel’s relations with other regional and global powers.
Tensions between Israel and Turkey are arising as both countries seek to expand their influence in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Israel has increased its presence in southern Syria, while Turkey is extending its military influence in the north, west and now the center of the country.
Turkey’s ambitions to establish air bases in Syria are exacerbating tensions with Israel and posing significant challenges to regional security. It is crucial that the actors involved prioritize dialogue and diplomacy to avoid an escalation that could have devastating consequences for the stability of the Middle East.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.