The Houthis reportedly used Russian data to target international shipping, diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. Strategic impact analysis.
Since October 2023, the Houthis have stepped up their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, supported by targeting data provided by Russia. This support is part of a strategy to divert US resources from Ukraine to the Middle East. The use of missiles, drones and unmanned vessels to threaten key trade routes, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait, has led to major disruptions, resulting in a 77% reduction in tanker traffic by August 2024. At the same time, international defense missions have cost the US around $1 billion in munitions. This article analyzes the military, economic and geopolitical implications of this situation.
Increased threat to international shipping
The attacks orchestrated by the Houthis in the Red Sea have had a profound impact on shipping. The routes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the strategic bottlenecks for oil transit, see the transit of almost 10% of the world’s oil every day. According to Windward, tanker traffic through the strait fell by 77% between October 2023 and August 2024. This readjustment has resulted in longer routes, as ships are forced to bypass Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, adding considerable fuel and time costs to shipping companies. For example, the Cape of Good Hope route can lengthen the journey by over 6,000 km, increasing operating costs by over 15% for some carriers.
This rerouting also leads to higher prices for oil and seaborne products, a knock-on effect on world markets. The defense efforts of American and European forces in the region have materialized in the creation of special units, such as the American Operation Prosperity Guardian and the European Operation Aspides, aimed at securing transit routes.
Russian influence and strategic implications
Russia’s provision of targeting data to the Houthis serves a strategic purpose: to divert American attention and resources away from Ukraine. By collaborating indirectly with the Houthis, Moscow has helped to create a new zone of tension that calls on Western military forces. Russia’s support for the Houthis could also be seen as a “war economy” tactic, enabling Moscow to maintain constant pressure on the United States without direct engagement.
At the same time, Russia has reportedly threatened to supply long-range weapons to other actors in regions where they could be used against Western allies. Should this transfer of anti-ship technology be confirmed, it would further complicate the maritime defense of Western partners in the region.
A major operational cost for the USA
For the United States, the defense effort in the Red Sea is far from negligible. The US Secretary of the Navy, Carlos Del Toro, revealed in April that over $1 billion in munitions had already been spent to protect ships in this region and in support of Israel since October 2023. Attacks by the Houthis prompted the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower strike group to use around 770 munitions during its nine-month mission to repel missiles, drones and unmanned vessels.
The concentration of resources in this region means a reduction in the United States’ ability to respond to other global threats. What’s more, massive military investment requires constant funding, putting a strain on the defense budget at a time of rising international tensions in several strategic regions.
Implications for international relations
Rising tensions in the Red Sea are also having an impact on relations between world powers. Cooperation between Russia and the Houthis is raising concerns among US partners in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, which is already engaged in a protracted conflict with the Houthis. This situation highlights the growing interconnection of regional conflicts and global rivalries.
Russia’s military influence in the Middle East, which includes support for non-state actors, adds to the complexity of the geopolitical landscape for the United States and its allies. By indirectly supporting the Houthis, Moscow could be seeking to establish a strategic position, affecting the balances in a region crucial to global trade.
The economic and geopolitical perspective
The disruption of trade routes by Houthi attacks is driving up costs for international businesses. At the same time, the growing use of longer, more expensive routes is increasing the volatility of prices for essential goods, impacting the global economy. Shipping companies and insurers have also adjusted their premiums for cargo transiting the Red Sea, some even doubling costs.
Cooperation between Russia and the Houthis is heightening tensions in the Red Sea, imposing significant costs on global economies, and complicating the military responses of the United States and its allies. Moscow’s strategy of dispersing US resources could have long-term implications for energy security and geopolitical stability in the Middle East region.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.