The EU is launching an €800 billion plan to relocate its arms production and reduce its dependence on the United States
The European Union has presented its “European Defense Readiness 2030” plan to strengthen its autonomy in defense matters. The objective is to relocate arms production to Europe, increase military budgets and structure a common industrial policy. The project mobilizes 800 billion euros, including 650 billion through increased national budgets and 150 billion through a loan program called SAFE. This strategic shift is a response to the declining reliability of the United States as an arms supplier, particularly since the breakdown in military support for Ukraine, the threats of withdrawal of American troops and the technological dependence on American supply chains. Canada could join the initiative. The global arms market is therefore undergoing profound change.
Military relocation estimated at 800 billion euros
The “European Defense Readiness 2030” plan is based on a total investment of 800 billion euros. This amount includes 650 billion euros from an increase in defense budgets, amounting to 1.5% of GDP per Member State, and 150 billion euros for the SAFE loan program.
The SAFE budget aims to co-finance industrial projects in key sectors: missile defense, tactical and strategic drones, cybersecurity, electronic warfare logistics. The budget increases could raise EU military spending from €290 billion (2022) to over €500 billion by 2030.
This dynamic is in response to growing demand. According to SIPRI, the global arms market was worth around 570 billion euros in 2023. US arms exports accounted for 41% of this, compared with 11% for France and 7% for Germany. The European aim is therefore to reduce dependence on external suppliers, mainly American.
The SAFE project is partly inspired by existing mechanisms such as the European Defense Industrial Development Program (EDIDP), but with a budget ten times larger. This new lever could make it possible to structure a true common defense market.
Consequences for the United States: a quantified decline in arms exports
This European project could cause a massive drop in US arms exports to Europe, estimated at several tens of billions of euros per year. For example, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program alone accounts for nearly 250 billion euros in international contracts, including more than 80 billion in Europe alone (Norway, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium, etc.).
However, these sales are weakened by growing doubts about the sustainability of American logistical support. Several MEPs have raised the risk of dependence on American spare parts, maintenance software and encrypted networks.
Former American support for Ukraine, abruptly interrupted in 2019 for political reasons, has heightened concerns. The fear is that key systems could become inoperative in the event of a breakdown in cooperation. The concept of a “kill switch” in the F-35, although officially denied, illustrates this vulnerability.
This climate of technological and strategic mistrust is helping to redirect European industrial choices towards platforms such as the Rafale (Dassault Aviation) or the MGCS land defense system co-developed by France and Germany.
Canada’s strategic role in this industrial redirection
Canada, historically linked to American supply chains, is now questioning its industrial positioning. Mark Carney’s government has launched an audit of the €13.3 billion F-35 contract signed in 2023. Ottawa is considering alternatives such as the Saab JAS 39 Gripen, designed in Sweden, potentially produced locally in Canada.
Canada could also join the European SAFE system, although outside Europe, under the heading of enhanced bilateral partnerships. This change of course reflects a realignment of technological and industrial sovereignty.
At the same time, Canada has signed an agreement with Australia for the acquisition of a long-range radar system, confirming its desire to diversify its suppliers and strengthen its autonomous surveillance capabilities. This marks a profound restructuring of Canadian defense doctrine, historically backed by the Pentagon.
Canada’s integration into the European military production program could strengthen joint transatlantic industrialization outside the NATO framework, creating a third strategic path.
Economic and industrial implications for Europe
The shift towards massive local defense production implies a major industrial transformation. It requires increased capacity for assembly, ballistic testing, cyber defense data processing, propulsion, optics and military robotics.
Groups such as Airbus Defense & Space, Rheinmetall, Leonardo, Thales, and KNDS (KMW + Nexter Defense Systems) are the main beneficiaries of this reorientation. Their market capitalizations have already surged since the plan was announced, anticipating a doubling of order books by 2030.
For example, Rheinmetall saw its share price rise by 42% between January 2023 and March 2025, and Thales by 33% over the same period. These movements can be explained by the internal growth forecasts for the European market, estimated at +8% per year on average between now and 2030.
But these gains require heavy investment in automation, qualified personnel and applied research, particularly in military AI, composite materials and hypersonic missiles. The aim is to reduce production times to 12 months, compared with up to 36 months at present.
Finally, European military logistics will have to be reviewed: pooling of supply chains, interoperability of equipment, and standardization of parts will be the pillars of a sustainable industrial ecosystem.
A geopolitical redefinition of Western alliances
This strategic shift in Europe is part of a restructuring of military alliances. The possible withdrawal of the United States from NATO’s Supreme Command in Europe (SACEUR) would have a structuring effect. The EU would be forced to rethink the operational and logistical chain of command, which until now has been strongly integrated into the American system.
This European autonomy also raises the question of the role of Turkey and South Korea, which are strengthening their positions on the global arms market. Turkey, with the Bayraktar TB2 drone, and South Korea, with the KF-21 Boramae fighter, are increasingly credible technical competitors.
Finally, this dynamic could favor reinforced intra-European defense agreements, including outside the NATO framework: France-Greece, Germany-Poland, Netherlands-Belgium, with sharing of platforms, training and logistics.
The “Defense Readiness 2030” project therefore reflects a profound change in European strategic independence, conditioned by a technological and industrial break with the American model.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.