The capture of Velyka Novosilka, the last Ukrainian stronghold in the southern Donbas, could pave the way for a strategic Russian advance towards Dnipropetrovsk.
The situation at Velyka Novosilka, in the Donbas region, illustrates the complexity of the war in Ukraine. This strategic point, located at the intersection of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, is one of the last Ukrainian strongholds in the area. Its loss could allow a Russian advance into crucial regions, complicating Ukrainian defense efforts. The intense fighting, marked by combined armored and infantry strategies, highlights the military and geopolitical importance of this area.
Velyka Novosilka: a strategic position under pressure
The town of Velyka Novosilka occupies a key position on the military map of eastern Ukraine. Its location on the border between the regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk makes it an essential logistical hub for Ukrainian forces. According to reports, Russian troops have advanced into the eastern and central parts of the city, posing a direct threat to Ukrainian defense lines.
Russian forces are using mixed strategies, combining infantry and armored assaults. Videos posted on social networks show Russian units advancing with modern armored vehicles, while the Ukrainians try to hold their positions with limited resources. This situation highlights a significant manpower imbalance, compounded by Russian numerical superiority in terms of personnel and equipment.
The geography of Velyka Novosilka further complicates defensive efforts. A river runs through the town, creating logistical challenges for Ukrainian forces. Strategic access roads are also under constant fire from Russian troops, hampering the defenders’ movements and supplies.
The implications of a Russian advance towards Dnipropetrovsk
If Velyka Novosilka falls, it could pave the way for a Russian advance into the Dnipropetrovsk, a region under Ukrainian control. This area is crucial to Ukraine’s economy and logistics, hosting major industrial infrastructures and transport hubs. Such a breakthrough could weaken Ukrainian defenses and complicate coordination efforts between the various regions.
From a military point of view, it would give Russia greater access to Ukrainian supply lines. By disrupting these networks, Russian forces could reduce Ukraine’s ability to support its troops in other critical areas of the front. Moreover, an advance towards Dnipropetrovsk would offer Russia additional geopolitical leverage in future negotiations.
Precedents show the strategic impact of such advances. For example, the loss of the city of Lysychansk in 2022 enabled Russian forces to extend their control into the Donbas, with repercussions for Ukrainian operations in the region.
Logistical and human challenges for Ukraine
Ukrainian forces face significant challenges in maintaining their positions. The lack of manpower and modern equipment complicates their ability to counter Russian assaults. The Ukrainian authorities recently lowered the conscription age to 18 and reformed their recruitment system to meet the growing demand for soldiers. However, these measures have not yet had the desired effect.
According to estimates, battlefield losses have significantly reduced the Ukrainian army’s operational capacity. In response, Kyiv is considering further reforms to attract new recruits and modernize military infrastructure. This includes increased partnerships with NATO countries to accelerate the supply of equipment such as drones, anti-aircraft systems and ammunition.
Despite these efforts, challenges persist. Military infrastructures inherited from the Soviet era are not adapted to today’s needs. This includes a shortage of modern armored vehicles and an over-reliance on Western systems that require specialized training for their use.
Drone warfare: a new dimension to the conflict
The recent Ukrainian 121 drone attack on targets in Russia demonstrates the evolution of the conflict. These strikes caused considerable damage to critical infrastructure, including a microelectronics factory in Bryansk, refineries in Ryazan and military installations.
Drones have become a key tool for both sides, offering long-range strike capability while limiting the risks for operators. For Ukraine, they represent an effective alternative to costly missiles. Each drone, equipped with explosive charges, can cause significant damage at relatively low cost. For example, a successful attack on a Russian refinery could disrupt energy production for several weeks, resulting in significant economic losses.
However, this drone war also presents risks. Russia has reinforced its air defense systems, intercepting a large proportion of Ukrainian drones. This highlights the need for Ukraine to invest in more advanced technologies, including stealth drones capable of evading detection.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.