SpaceX is reportedly preparing for a historic IPO. Starlink, defense, Starship, valuation, and risks: why the move is as fascinating as it is concerning.
In Summary
SpaceX is moving closer to a potential initial public offering that could become one of the largest in history. According to several financial media outlets, Elon Musk’s company is aiming for a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion, with a potential fundraising target of around $75 billion. No final public prospectus is available yet to verify all the figures. That is the key point. The deal should therefore be treated with caution. SpaceX attracts investors because it dominates orbital launches, operates Starlink, is developing Starship, and has sensitive military operations through Starshield. But such an ambitious IPO raises some tough questions: what will the money be used for, how much is the company really worth, what rights will shareholders have, and isn’t the entry price already too high? Buying SpaceX may seem tempting. But at this valuation, investors wouldn’t just be buying a company. They’d be buying a huge promise.
The anticipated prospectus should finally open up SpaceX’s books
SpaceX’s IPO has been anticipated for years. It has long been delayed because Elon Musk wanted to preserve the company’s strategic freedom. A publicly traded company must publish its financial statements, answer to investors, accept stricter regulatory oversight, and justify its expenses. For SpaceX, this transparency is both an opportunity and a risk.
According to reports published by Reuters, the Financial Times, and the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX has reportedly initiated a confidential process with the SEC, the U.S. securities regulator. The goal is reportedly to prepare an exceptionally large SpaceX IPO. The reported figures vary, but the scale is staggering: a target valuation of around $1.75 trillion, or even more according to some estimates, and a potential fundraising total of approximately $75 billion. By way of comparison, Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO raised $29.4 billion.
We must be very clear. Until the public prospectus is officially available, these figures are not complete financial data. They are information reported by financial media and market sources. The key document will be the Form S-1. It must specify revenue, margins, debt, capital expenditures, risks, governance, litigation, transactions between related companies, and the exact use of funds.
The prospectus will be decisive, as SpaceX is no longer just a rocket manufacturer. It is a space, telecommunications, and military group with potential ties to artificial intelligence. Its valuation cannot be understood through a simple industrial lens. It is based on several simultaneous bets.
The rationale for an IPO is less financial than strategic
SpaceX does not necessarily need an IPO to survive. This is a key difference from many tech companies. The company already has access to massive private financing. It attracts institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and private shareholders. Secondary offerings have regularly allowed employees and early investors to sell a portion of their shares.
Why go public, then? First, to raise a massive amount of capital.
If the offering reaches tens of billions of dollars, SpaceX could simultaneously fund Starship, Starlink, direct-to-consumer satellite services, ground infrastructure, space defense, manufacturing facilities, launch pads, and its lunar or Martian ambitions. Second, the IPO would provide liquidity to long-standing shareholders. This is a very strong argument after more than twenty years of private development.
An IPO would also serve to establish SpaceX at the heart of major indices. If the company goes public, index funds, ETFs, pension funds, and large asset managers could be required or strongly incentivized to buy the stock. This would create mechanical demand. This is precisely what is fueling some of the current enthusiasm.
But the IPO would also serve a political function. SpaceX has become critical infrastructure for the United States. It transports astronauts, launches military satellites, provides low-cost internet in remote areas, and plays a role in wartime communications. By going public, SpaceX would also become a national financial asset. This would further strengthen its economic and strategic clout.
The money must be used to finance a massive expansion
The funds’ likely first destination is Starship. This giant, fully reusable launch vehicle is intended to drastically reduce the cost of accessing orbit, launch heavier Starlink satellites, support the Artemis lunar program, and, ultimately, serve Elon Musk’s vision for Mars. But Starship is expensive. The vehicle must be developed, numerous tests conducted, infrastructure built, the reliability of the Raptor engines improved, orbital refueling validated, and regulatory approvals obtained.
The second obvious destination is Starlink. The network now extends beyond simple residential antennas. It is expanding into aviation, maritime, rural areas, businesses, governments, and mobile telecommunications. In May 2026, the FCC approved a major transaction related to EchoStar’s spectrum, with a portion of $17 billion allocated to SpaceX to support direct-to-phone communication services. This type of investment shows that Starlink wants to move beyond the fixed satellite internet market alone.
The third area is military. SpaceX is developing Starshield, a national security-focused version of its space technologies. The company is also working with the National Reconnaissance Office and the U.S. Space Force on satellite networks, launches, and intelligence capabilities. These activities require specific investments: hardened satellites, secure links, encryption, resilient architecture, sensors, control centers, and guaranteed launch capabilities.
The fourth potential area involves more speculative projects: orbital infrastructure, space computing, data services, lunar logistics, and Mars. This is where investors will need to be cautious. Part of SpaceX’s valuation is based on markets that do not yet exist on a large scale.
Civilian activities rest on three pillars
The first civilian pillar is space launch. SpaceX currently dominates the orbital market thanks to Falcon 9. The reuse of the first stage has transformed the sector’s economics. By 2025, the company had surpassed 120 Falcon 9 launches dedicated to Starlink, according to its own Starlink report, and continued to break launch cadence records. This capability is a massive advantage. It reduces lead times, allows the company to launch its own satellites, and attracts commercial customers.
The second pillar is Starlink. The low-Earth orbit network provides internet access in areas poorly covered by terrestrial networks. It targets individuals, businesses, ships, aircraft, RVs, rural areas, governments, and telecom operators.
According to publicly available data, Starlink had connected 4.6 million new active customers by 2025 and was operating in more than 150 countries and territories by the end of 2025. Recent estimates suggest approximately 9 million active users by the end of 2025, with growth still accelerating.
The third pillar is human and institutional space transportation. SpaceX transports astronauts to the International Space Station via Crew Dragon. NASA has awarded SpaceX several Commercial Crew contracts, with a total of missions extending through 2030. SpaceX is also developing the Starship Human Landing System for Artemis. The initial NASA contract in 2021 was worth $2.9 billion, and a $1.15 billion option was added in 2022 to support additional lunar missions.
These activities give SpaceX a rare profile. The company sells to individuals, businesses, space agencies, and governments. Few companies combine such a wide range of services.
Military activities give SpaceX a unique status
The military side is less visible, but it is central. SpaceX is no longer just a launch provider. It is becoming a cornerstone of U.S. space architecture. Its rockets launch national security payloads. Its satellites can support communications, intelligence, surveillance, and military operations.
Starshield is officially presented by SpaceX as an initiative dedicated to national security efforts. The company explains that Starshield relies on Starlink technology and SpaceX’s launch capabilities. Use cases include secure communications, Earth observation, and carrying payloads for government clients.
Reuters also reported on a contract worth approximately $1.8 billion with the National Reconnaissance Office, signed in 2021, to build an intelligence satellite network. This information highlights SpaceX’s deep integration into the U.S. security apparatus. It is no longer just an ordinary private space company. It is a strategic supplier.
This position can support the valuation. Government contracts provide visibility, credibility, and revenue. But it also creates risks. SpaceX depends on political decisions, public budgets, relations with the Pentagon, and issues of sovereignty. If the company goes public, investors will have to accept this exposure.
Valuation is the real sticking point of the deal
The figure causing concern is the valuation. Reuters reported that SpaceX is expected to generate approximately $15 to $16 billion in revenue by 2025 and approximately $8 billion in EBITDA. If the company is targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, the multiple becomes very high. One must therefore believe in exceptional growth for Starlink, the success of Starship, the ramp-up of Starshield, and the emergence of new markets.
It’s not impossible. SpaceX has already proven it can break through industry barriers once thought insurmountable. It has reduced launch costs, reused rockets on a large scale, and built a global constellation. But the entry price changes everything. A good company can become a bad investment if it is bought at too high a price.
Investors must therefore distinguish between three things. SpaceX is likely an exceptional company. The IPO will likely be in high demand. But that does not automatically mean the stock will be a good deal at the proposed price. If the market is pricing in ten or fifteen years of growth in advance, even the slightest disappointment can be costly.
This is a classic risk in major IPOs. Retail investors often jump in when the story is already very popular. Long-term private investors, on the other hand, sometimes bought at much lower valuations. The price difference can be enormous.
Governance Could Become the Main Hurdle
Another issue concerns Elon Musk’s power. According to reports by Reuters and the Financial Times, the proposed structure would give Musk significant control, particularly through shares with enhanced voting rights. Pension fund officials in New York and California have already criticized a governance structure deemed too favorable to management.
This is not a minor issue. By buying a SpaceX share, an investor could be purchasing an economic stake without any real control. If the board of directors remains dominated by Musk or his associates, minority shareholders will have little means of influence. This is acceptable to some investors, who believe that Musk is precisely the reason for SpaceX’s success. It is problematic for others, who want more independent governance.
The situation is even more complex because Elon Musk leads or influences several companies: Tesla, xAI, X, Neuralink, The Boring Company, and SpaceX. Potential conflicts of interest will need to be clearly explained in the prospectus. If SpaceX works with companies linked to Musk, the financial terms will need to be transparent.
The stock market loves growth. It’s less fond of opacity. On this point, the prospectus will be scrutinized line by line.
Buying may be tempting, but it’s not a simple investment
Is it a good idea to buy SpaceX? The honest answer is: it depends on the price, your risk profile, and the contents of the prospectus. It would be dangerous to present the purchase as a no-brainer. SpaceX has immense strengths: a dominant position in launch services, Starlink’s growth, government contracts, industrial leadership, global reputation, and Starship’s potential. Few companies combine so many growth drivers.
But the risks are significant. The valuation may be excessive. Starship could fall behind schedule. Starlink’s costs may remain high. Competition may intensify, particularly with Amazon’s Project Kuiper, telecom operators, and other satellite constellations. Regulators may restrict certain services. Launch accidents could disrupt the pace of operations. Governance issues may deter large, responsible investors.
For a retail investor, SpaceX could therefore be a very risky growth stock, not a defensive investment. It would be better suited as a small portion of a diversified portfolio rather than a concentrated position. The worst impulse would be to buy solely out of fascination with Elon Musk or fear of “missing the boat.”
The right question isn’t: “Is SpaceX a great company?” The right question is: “At this price, how much good news is already priced into the stock?”
Not all buyers will be treated the same
If SpaceX goes public on the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange, the shares could in principle be purchased by investors with a brokerage account providing access to U.S. stocks. French retail investors could therefore buy through an international broker or a bank offering access to U.S. markets. However, the stock would not be eligible for a PEA if it remains a U.S. company listed in the United States.
During the IPO itself, access will be more limited. The largest allocations generally go to institutional investors: pension funds, asset managers, hedge funds, private banks, and sovereign wealth funds.
Some brokers may receive a small allocation for their retail clients, but this is often insufficient to meet demand. Retail investors therefore often buy after the stock begins trading, sometimes at a price already higher than the IPO price.
There are also indirect routes. Certain exchange-traded funds, trusts, or investment companies already hold private shares of SpaceX. After the IPO, ETFs and index funds could buy the stock if SpaceX joins major indices. But these solutions come with their own fees, discounts, rules, and risks.
Before buying, investors should consider three key factors: the offering price, corporate governance, and how funds are used. Without these three pieces of information, investors are essentially buying into a story.
The prospectus will reveal whether SpaceX is a revolution or a prestige bubble
SpaceX’s IPO could become a historic event. It would open up to the public a company that has transformed space launch, satellite internet, and the relationship between private industry and military power. It could also create one of the world’s largest market capitalizations from day one.
But that is precisely why caution is warranted. The more spectacular the story, the more dangerous the price can become. SpaceX has real assets, real technology, real revenue, and real contracts. It is not a speculative shell. But a valuation of around $1.75 trillion assumes near-perfect execution over many years.
The prospectus will therefore be the most important document. It will need to answer simple questions. Is Starlink sustainably profitable? Can Starship become operational at scale? Will capital expenditures skyrocket? Are military revenues stable? Will shareholders have real rights? Will the money be used primarily to finance the company or to facilitate sales of existing shares?
SpaceX is fascinating because it gives the impression of buying a piece of the future. But the stock market doesn’t just pay for dreams. It always ends up judging margins, cash flow, delays, costs, and governance discipline. That is where SpaceX’s IPO will truly be put to the test.
War Wings Daily is an independant magazine.